It will take days, weeks, or even months before the cracks are fully revealed, but make no mistake: every crisis that ends with the most precarious solutions, or no solution at all, further diminishes the stature of Vladimir Putin and therefore the support he has left among Russian elites. His rivals are probably eyeing the throne already.
In the short term, Putin could use the failure of the uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, to his advantage. After all, the masses did not rise up to join the rebellion, as Prigozhin predicted, and Russia’s armed forces remained on the side of the Kremlin, albeit only lukewarmly, as evidenced by the fact that troops had to be sent Chechens to Rostov-on-Don to face Prigozhin’s mercenaries. But over time it will become clear that none of this reflects the strength of the Putin regime.
It is not inconceivable that Putin could still present himself as a great peacemaker. But he would need Russia’s elites to rally behind him. And Putin’s silence since Prigozhin made his deal with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko suggests that he doesn’t know, even now, if he can count on the loyalty of his cronies. In addition, people are eager to hear him explain why Prigozhin, the “traitor”, is being pardoned. The coup may have been crushed, but the world sees that leadership is still lacking.
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Of course Putin still has some allies, such as Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic, who has vowed to send troops to Moscow to repel the coup plotters. And Russian leaders, including Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Duma; Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and most of the regional governors have defended the regime.
But opposition to the uprising among Russian elites focused more on rejecting Prigozhin than supporting Putin. Although they disagree with some of the president’s decisions, such as isolating Russia and strengthening his reliance on China, and see him as increasingly weak and unstable, he remains a safer bet than the volatile leader of an army of thugs and mercenary convicts.
At the same time, it seems likely that Prigozhin has some Russian leaders on his side. For example, you could have an agreement with General Aleksei Dyumin, governor of the Tula region. Some in Moscow believe that Dyumin, who used to be in charge of Putin’s security and was at one point considered one of his potential successors, negotiated with Lukashenko on Prigozhin’s behalf and even promised Wagner’s boss a future military post.
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It would be easy to keep that promise if, as some suggest, Dyumin becomes Russia’s new defense minister, replacing Prigozhin’s main enemy, Sergei Shoigu. Under Dyumin’s leadership, Russia would undoubtedly take an even more brutal approach to war. in Ukraine, which would satisfy Prigozhin.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
More ominous for Putin, Prigozhin’s rebellion may well have been aided and even organized by forces close to the Kremlin or by members of Russia’s national security agency, the FSB, who blame Putin for allowing the war in Ukraine to drag on. . Even if that is not the case, the fact that Prigozhin so flagrantly publicly challenged Putin and managed to tell the story it could inspire new attempts to overthrow Russia’s supreme leadership.
So who could take the throne? Two obvious possibilities are Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, and his son Dmitry, Minister of Agriculture. Another is Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who deliberately appeared on television hard at work during the crisis, while Putin flew to safety in the Valdai, away from the Kremlin. Then there is Dyumin, as well as Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, who controls his own powerful armed force.
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This does not mean that Putin’s end is imminent.. There have long been rumors about Russia’s elites eager to replace him. But change never seems to come. Just as Prigozhin backed down from a fight he wasn’t sure he would win, Putin’s would-be challengers seem to lack confidence that they can beat their rivals.
NINA L. KRUSHCHEVA
Professor of International Affairs at The New School (New York).
© PROJECT SYNDICATE
Moscow
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