Israel sees nothing less than the elimination of the terrorist group Hamas as a victory in Gaza. But an analysis suggests that fine-tuning could be more effective.
Gaza – For Israel and in particular the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu War in Israel only one thing: achieve the stated goal. The destruction of the terrorist organization Hamas in response to the October 7 attacks, when Hamas attacked Israel and killed 1,200 people, is an absolute priority.
By conventional definition, Israel is the Hamas exponentially superior and stronger, all experts agree on that. But the terrorists use so-called irregular warfare. And whether the group can even be literally wiped out is unclear.
Israel is at war with a non-state entity in Gaza
But questions of strategy in armed conflicts are a very broad and complex construct in which, paradoxically, those much more powerful can sometimes find themselves at a disadvantage. This asymmetry can arise when a state is at war with a non-state entity – and it particularly relates to the concepts of time and purpose, as the Israeli daily newspaper says Haaretz explained in a detailed analysis of the war situation in Gaza.
For Israel, a victory always means comprehensively destroying Hamas militarily – or at least causing degrading, irreparable military damage, the paper soberly analyzed. A victory would also mean a political weakening of Hamas and render the terrorist organization unable to compete Gaza Strip to exercise power and govern. Anything else would amount to a limited tactical achievement and not a strategic game changer, explained former diplomat Alon Pinkas for Haaretz.
War in Israel: A defeat would only be a tactical setback for Hamas
For Hamas, victory means staying on its feet. Their stated goal is to foment and maintain a permanent state of conflict, to constantly disrupt the status quo. Hamas is not thinking about the here and now, but about decades, emphasized Pinkas. It aims to undermine and delegitimize Israel as a state, so that a military defeat – no matter how resounding and decisive it may be – cannot detract from this goal.
In other words, Israel must achieve a victory of strategic importance, while Hamas, if not completely wiped out, could view the defeat as merely a tactical setback, Pinkas analyzed.
One area in which Hamas appears to be achieving success is world opinion. There are now pro-Palestinian ones around the world, but also anti-Semitic, anti-Israel demonstrations. In the United States, a new survey shows University of Maryland/IPSOS a significant decline in support for Israel among younger age groups since its military response in Gaza.
Israel may need to change its strategic direction
Jon Alterman from Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out Haaretz points out two measures that Israel must implement immediately and in the medium term in order to change its strategic direction: regain international legitimacy and strengthen the Palestinian Authority.
The first step would be to follow the advice of the USA to follow and listen to calls for humanitarian pauses and temporary local ceasefires. Creative ideas for dealing with the hospitals in the Gaza Strip already exist. However, Israel initially rejected such advances and instead announced that there would be no general ceasefire.
The second option, strengthening the Palestinian Authority, requires a dramatic shift in Israel’s political and strategic thinking – one that could lead to a political process once a deal in Gaza is extended to the West Bank, Pinkas analyzed. Netanyahu had claimed that he would “transform the Middle East.” But this requires more than a successful military operation. (Sonja Thomaser)
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