As Israel’s bombing of Gaza continues, the world watches with helplessness at the humanitarian tragedy that is being experienced in the Palestinian territory after the surprise attack by Hamas on October 7.
More than 1,300 people died in that attack, which led Israel to a bombing campaign on Gaza that as of Monday has left more than 2,700 dead and hundreds of thousands displaced who fear the announced ground incursion of the Israeli army.
United Nations humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said the health system in Gaza and its hospital network were “collapsing under our gaze” due to the absence of water, fuel and medical supplies.
On the other hand, there is still no clarity on the number of hostages held by Hamas: Israeli government sources say there are 199, while a spokesman for the radical Islamist group said they were “between 200 and 250.”
Due to the speed of events and the number of questions that have arisen in the last week, a group of BBC experts took on the task of answering some of them.
1. What was Hamas’s goal with its initial attack?
The reason given at the time by Hamas spokesman Mohammed Al-Deif was that “enough is enough.”
The attack, he said, was in response to what Hamas called constant provocations and humiliations suffered by Palestinians at the hands of the Israelis in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Analysts believe there may be other unstated reasons.
Before the attack, Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the path to normalizing relations.
This was opposed by both Hamas and its sponsor, Iran. The Saudis have now suspended those talks.
But there’s more than that.
Hamas leaders will have noted the sharp divisions in Israeli society caused by the judicial reforms introduced by Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government.
Their objective was to deal a painful blow to Israel and they succeeded.
2. What is Israel’s goal?
In past wars, Israel vowed to “hit Hamas hard,” destroying its rocket-firing capabilities and its vast network of underground tunnels.
This time it’s different. Israel vows to “destroy Hamas,” an organization it says should be eliminated, like the Islamic State group.
Israel has the military power to destroy Hamas’s infrastructure, crush its tunnels and paralyze its command and control networks.
But it is unclear how much Israel knows about what awaits it in Gaza. Hamas’s military prowess, including a surprisingly detailed understanding of Israel’s security that allowed it to bypass its formidable defenses, has shocked Israelis.
Hamas is likely to possess the same sophistication when facing what it knows will be a fierce Israeli response.
And unlike the Islamic State group, Hamas is also a political and social organization rooted in Palestinian society.
A military attack may destroy its infrastructure, but not the temper of the people whose determination to die for their cause will only harden.
3. How did Israel not find out about Hamas’ attack plans?
The Israeli military has in the past opened its control center for Gaza surveillance to journalists, and it clearly has excellent real-time information on ground movements from drones and other cameras.
It also has a wide network of informants.
In last May’s fighting against jihad we saw how accurate Israel’s information on the whereabouts of key Islamist militants can be.
In briefings, Israeli military officials accepted that there have been significant intelligence and security failures regarding the unprecedented deadly Hamas attack on October 7.
However, the Israeli military is believed to have a long and precise list of Hamas targets that it will pursue as soon as it has troops on the ground.
4. How are Hamas and Hezbollah similar?
North of Gaza, tensions have been rising on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Israel views Hezbollah, a Lebanese military, political and social movement, as a more formidable force than Hamas.
The group is heavily armed and backed by Iran: it has approximately 130,000 rockets and missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Most of this arsenal consists of small, portable, unguided ground-to-ground artillery rockets.
But it also includes anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, as well as guided missiles capable of striking deep inside Israel.
This is much more sophisticated than what Hamas has at its disposal.
Hezbollah’s leader has claimed to have 100,000 fighters, although independent estimates vary between 20,000 and 50,000. Many are well trained and battle-hardened, having fought in the Syrian civil war.
By comparison, Hamas has about 30,000 fighters, according to Israel.
5. Does Hamas build its tunnels under hospitals and schools?
The Gaza tunnels are a labyrinth so extensive that the Israeli military calls them the “Gaza Metro.”
They are a vital part of Hamas operations. The tunnels are used to transport goods and people, store weapons and ammunition, and house command and control centers.
They are known to be heavily reinforced with concrete and have electricity. They are so deep, up to 30 meters, that it is difficult to say with complete certainty where they are located.
But it is very likely that such a vast underground network, on such a small piece of land, would pass beneath densely populated neighborhoods of homes, hospitals and schools.
There have been reports that some passages have entrances located on the lower floors of houses, mosques, schools and other public buildings to allow militants to evade detection.
The Israeli military has repeatedly accused Hamas of hiding inside these tunnels, effectively defending them with human shields.
6. What will happen in Gaza after the fighting?
Israel says it only wants to eliminate Hamas and there is no reason to think it wants to reoccupy an area it withdrew from almost 20 years ago.
Some members of the far right in Israel might want to do so, but the occupation from 1967 to 2005 was costly and unpopular.
Israel does not want to return to being the daily ruler of more than two million resentful Palestinians.
Of course, Israel’s warnings to Palestinians to leave their homes inevitably create fears in the Gaza Strip that Israel has a hidden agenda and that a repeat of the “Naqba” (“catastrophe”) of 1948, when hundreds of Thousands of Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes by Israeli forces.
As for a post-conflict solution, it seems quite distant at the moment.
A former Israeli military officer said he hoped Israel, the Gulf states and the international community would come together to rebuild Gaza.
And there is talk of putting back in charge the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which was forced to leave Gaza after a brief, bloody clash with Hamas in 2007.
Judging by the destruction caused by Israeli bombing, rebuilding Gaza will be a mammoth task.
7. Could this lead to World War III?
When asked about the possibility of intervention by Iran or its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, Joe Biden said: “Don’t do it.”
The Americans have just deployed two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean to send a very strong message to Iran to stay out of what is happening in Gaza.
They are saying that if someone intervenes, they will have to take into account American military power, not just Israel’s.
One of the main fault lines in the Middle East runs between the US and its allies, and the Iranians and theirs.
Both parties are aware of the risks. If it went from a cold war to a hot war, it would trigger a conflagration of global importance in the Middle East.
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/crg131gx98zo, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-10-17 10:40:06
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