He Israeli airstrike on Iran last Saturday, carried out by fighter jets and missiles, on specific infrastructures of the Islamic Republic will have consequences. Not only because it seems that it will be one more link in this chain of unpredictable ending of attacks and reprisals between Israel and Iran – as Tehran has already promised – but because it may have consequences in other scenarios and not just regional ones.
That seems to be one of the conclusions of the latest analysis that the War Study Institute – an American research group that claims to be “non-partisan”, but composed mainly of retired military personnel and analysts from that country – has made on the Israeli attack.
It seems obvious that this limited Israeli retaliation was aimed at weakening the capacity of Iran’s air defense in the face of future attacks.
Among the targets were “three or four S-300 missile bases, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport,” and others that protected critical energy facilities in the west and southwest of the country such as “the Abadan oil refinery, the energy complex and the Bandar Imam Khomeini port and the Tang-eh Bijar gas field.
Impair the ability to build weapons and transfer them to allies
However, the Institute for the Study of War also highlights that the attack directed from Tel Aviv targeted Iran’s ability to produce missiles and drones.
This research center points out that the attacks “could disrupt Iran’s ability to build missiles and transfer them to partners abroad, such as Russia, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Houthis.
“IDF strikes hit drone and missile production facilities across Iran. “Commercially available satellite images revealed significant damage to the Parchin military complex, for example,” the Institute explains.
Parchin’s complex secret
“He Parchin complex is one of the largest and most secret Iranian missile production facilities. Some of the targets the IDF attacked were sophisticated mixing machines used to make solid fuel for advanced ballistic missiles, such as those Tehran has used to directly attack Israel. “It is likely that Iran will need months or perhaps a year or more to acquire new mixing equipment.”
We must remember the fundamental role that Iranian Shahed drones have had in the Russian offensive on Ukraine.
We will have to wait to assess what effect they can effectively have not only on Iran’s military capacity, but also on the war capacity of Russia, Hezbollah or the Yemeni Houthis.
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