Santorini already exploded before. In fact, the very photographed island we know today was born from an eruption. It was a long time ago: in 1628 AC (more or less). But can it be repeated again? Could the famous Greek island live a new detonation driven by the powerful movements that are concentrated inside the earth?
Thousands of people are abandoning Santorini (officially Thera), which is being shaken by high seismic activity. The Earth began to tremble on January 24. Since then, there have been almost a thousand tremors, up to a magnitude of 4.9.
Amorgos, the 1956 earthquake
According to experts, the earthquakes of recent days are due to underwater failures of the area. There are five failures, more than 20 kilometers each, and can cause earthquakes of up to 7.7 magnitude. That was What happened in 1956 in Amorgosthe easternmost Greek island of the group of cycles and the closest to the neighboring Dodecanese group.
The Amorgos earthquake had a magnitude of 7.7 on the scale of momentum and a maximum perceived IX intensity on the Mercalli intensity scale. 13 minutes later occurred An earthquake of magnitude 7.2 near Santorini. The seismic shaking and the posterior tsunami (up to 30 meters) caused the death of 53 people. It was the largest earthquake in Greece in the twentieth century.
Will Santorini erupt?
We are in an area that historically has presented a great seismic activity. In fact, Santorini is what remains of a huge volcanic explosion that occurred approximately 3,500 years agoduring the Bronze Age. The devastating eruption has been dated in different ways: between 1639 and 1616 AC, in 1628 BC, and between 1530 and 1500 AC.
That explosion destroyed existing settlements on the island and activated a tsunami that ravaged the Eastern Mediterranean. According to some theories, The collapse of Minoan civilization could have caused indirectly from the island of Crete, located 110 km to the south.
After each eruption, the volcano that is under the boiler that is Santorini begins to recharge … to another explosion. Can you get now? According to volcanologists, the island is in the middle of the cycle, that is, far from a dramatic detonation. At the moment they have not detected signs of magma ascent. They are worried more Kameni.
Kameni’s risk
Subduction is the sinking process of a lithospheric plaque under the edge of another. Well, Santorini’s volcanic complex Mark the subduction of the African tectonic plaque under the subplac of the Aegean which is part of the Eurasian tectonic plate. It moves at a speed of 5 cm per year in the northeast direction. This subduction is the one that results in earthquakes.
The estimated volcanic explosive index exceeds the scenarios considered before as the worst for Santorini “
This Greek archipelago is formed by the islands of Santorini and Thirasia (inhabited) and the uninhabited islets of Nea Kameni, Palea Kameni, Aspronisi and Christiana. They are the most active sector of the southern volcanic arch. The two Kameni are located in the center of the group as two peaks that stand out from the water and are formed by lava rocks.
Nea Kameni and Palea Kameni were born as a result of multiple initially underwater rashes in the center of the boiler. In 726, One of them expelled at least 2.8 billion cubic meters of lava, ash and rocks.
It can be worse than it was believed
That explosion was comparable with that of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano, in the Pacific, in 2022, according to a study published in 2024 in Nature Geoscience. “The estimated volcanic explosive index of magnitude 5 exceeds the eruptive scenarios previously considered as the worst For Santorini, “reads that research led by Jonas PreineGeophysical of the University of Hamburg (Germany).
That is, Kameni was more serious than was thought. “Our finding that Santorini’s boiler is capable of producing great explosive eruptions at an early stage of the boiler cycle It implies a high danger potential for the Mediterranean region Oriental, “says the study.
It was in 1950 the last time the Kameni erupted. It was just a scare. Then, between 2011 and 2012, the boiler showed signs of magmatic inflation and there were some seismic movements. And now, at the beginning of 2025, seismic activity is re -registered, for the moment in the failures and not so much in the islands that make up the Santorini volcanic complex. The authorities and with them the volcanologists continue on alert.
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