The population decline in China is increasingly accelerated.
Amid lingering concerns about the future growth of the world's second-largest economy, China saw a population decline of 2.08 million people in 2023, according to data released Wednesday.
This drop is double that recorded the previous year, when the country marked its first demographic reduction in 60 years.
Experts expected a significant decline in the Chinese population, given the expansion of the urban class and the low birth rate, which fell to 6.39 per 1,000 people, in line with other advanced East Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea.
The problem is that the country has seen declining birth rates for decades, after imposing a controversial one-child policy in the 1980s to control overpopulation at the time.
The government lifted that policy in 2015 to try to stem the population decline and also introduced a range of other incentives, such as subsidies and payments to encourage people to start families.
And in 2021 it further relaxed the limit to allow couples to have up to three children.
However, government measures have had little impact, and young people in modern cities say it is difficult to make the decision to have children due to the cost of living and professional priorities.
“I don't have enough money right now.”
The trend was accentuated after a three-year period of Covid that further discouraged couples.
“My husband and I want to have children, but we can't afford it,” said Wang Chengyi, a 31-year-old woman from Beijing.
She explained to the BBC that she and her partner need to save money for another three years to cover the costs of having a child, especially taking into account school fees.
“I want to get pregnant while I'm young because it's better for my health. However, I don't have enough money for now, so I have to postpone it. It's a shame and sometimes I feel panic about it,” she said.
Although the pandemic influenced the population decline, experts maintain that one of the biggest causes is underlying economic problems.
This is also reflected in the opinions of Chinese citizens on the internet.
“If you let people live more easily, more safely, of course there will be more people who want to have children,” wrote one user on Weibo.
“A new age”
China is following the pattern of other countries that have rapidly deindustrialized, experts say, although the pace of change has been very rapid.
“It's not a surprise. They have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, so this is exactly what happens: the population stops growing and starts declining,” said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten, an expert on demographic policies. from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
“This is just another year in this new era of population stagnation or decline for China.”
China's economic woes came to the fore in 2023, as the country battled a widespread housing crisis, a drop in consumer spending and record youth unemployment in the wake of the pandemic.
Amid the difficulties, China grew at one of its slowest rates in more than three decades, with its Gross Domestic Product, GDP, expanding by only 5.2%.
This marked the weakest economic performance since 1990, excluding the pandemic years.
With reduced economic expansion, it is not surprising that the youth unemployment rate in December reached 14.1%, after reaching 21.3% in June, after which China temporarily suspended the publication of monthly figures.
The latest demographic data is likely to reinforce some fears about the economy: China has long relied on a now aging workforce as a key driver of its economy.
The country faces increased pressure on its health and pension systems as its retiree population grows, which could rise 60% to 400 million by 2035.
Despite the problems, experts say the country has time and resources to manage the transition of its workforce.
“China is no different from other countries that have deindustrialized and moved toward the service sector,” said Professor Gietel-Basten.
“The population is becoming more educated, more skilled and healthier, and they want other jobs instead of working in factories or construction,” he added.
“The government is aware and has planned for this for the last decade, so it is expected to continue on that path.”
China, once the world's most populous nation, was overtaken by India last year, according to the United Nations.
While the Chinese population reached 1,409 million, India's reached 1,425 million.
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c72yp2p07zlo, IMPORTING DATE: 2024-01-17 20:07:03
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