US intelligence reports say Russia has stepped up preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has now deployed 70% of the forces it would need for such an attack, according to US officials.
Russia has assembled 110,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, but US intelligence has not determined whether President Vladimir Putin actually decided to invade, according to intelligence officials who in recent days have held briefings with lawmakers and representatives of the European allies.
US intelligence is uncertain, they said, whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to go on the offensive.
But Putin wants to have every possible option at his disposal: from a limited invasion of Ukraine’s pro-Russian Donbas region to a full-scale invasion of the neighboring country, according to officials.
Russia has repeatedly denied that it is planning to invade Ukraine.
For US intelligence, if Russia opts for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kiev and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours.
Such an attack would leave between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians dead, along with between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also trigger an avalanche of refugees of one to five million people, mostly to Poland, officials warned.
President Joe Biden has sent American troops to Poland to protect NATO members, while diplomats work hard to try to persuade Russia to withdraw its troops from the border with Ukraine.
The first contingent of American soldiers arrived this Saturday.
Moscow also announced joint military maneuvers with Belarus and sent several battalions north of Kiev and into the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.
US intelligence services have concluded that Russia continues to muster a large military force on its border with Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions deployed to the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly on the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia after a 2014 invasion.
But as of Friday, there were 80 battalions and another 14 were on their way from other parts of Russia, American officials said.
They added that about 1,500 soldiers from Russian special forces known as Spetsnaz were deployed over the Ukrainian border a week ago.
A major Russian naval force is also stationed in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious assault ships that could be used to land troops on Ukraine’s southern coast, US officials said.
Additionally, they added, another six amphibious ships were observed leaving the Barents Sea north of Russia and sailing beyond the UK and across the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently en route to the Black Sea.
In addition, Russia has deployed fighter jets near Ukraine, as well as bombers, missile and anti-aircraft batteries, officials said.
On Sunday, the Ukrainian Presidency considered that the chances of reaching a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis with Russia are “considerably greater” than those of a military “escalation”.
“The chances of finding a diplomatic solution to a de-escalation are considerably greater than the threat of a new escalation,” said Myhailo Podoliak, chief adviser to the Ukrainian government.
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