A wave of Russian bombings in Ukraine that left at least 36 dead in various parts of the country on Monday and hit two hospitals, one of them for children, is the prelude to the summit to commemorate the 75th anniversary of NATO, which will bring together its top leaders from this Tuesday in Washington with a questionable Joe Biden as host.
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The summit was supposed to showcase the triumph of a larger and stronger alliance, but far from the celebrations it will be marred by the Uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine and the shadow of Donald Trumpcandidate for president in the United States.
Biden is fighting for his political survival after a disastrous debate against the Republican, who is also a NATO skeptic.
That is why the summit in which the Democratic president will receive the leaders of the 32-nation transatlantic alliance is considered a transcendental public showcase because a new setback would put his candidacy on the line. If, on the other hand, Biden presents himself with the sanity and coherence that the meeting demands, which will include a press conference at the end, it could serve to clear up the doubts about his candidacy.
Adding to the challenging host scenario, NATO is entering the summit with Ukraine dissatisfied with its refusal to join the Alliance since last year’s meeting, Republicans in Congress – with Donald Trump in tow – criticising European defence spending as too low and forcing a suspension of aid to Ukraine for months; and Russian President Vladimir Putin appearing to be regaining strength.
Here we analyse the key points of a meeting that will set a roadmap for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that challenges the world order.
Ukraine, the central axis of the NATO summit 2024
In addition to the leaders of the 32 nations that make up NATO, the United States has also invited the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea to the meeting that begins on Tuesday, July 9 and runs through Thursday, July 11, a sign of NATO’s growing role in Asia in the face of a rising China.
But, The star of the summit will be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country is not part of the alliance but who will play a central role because the meeting will focus on approving measures that guarantee long-term support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion.
Monday’s airstrikes in Ukraine raise questions about the state of kyiv’s air defences after earlier attacks damaged power infrastructure and military airports.
This summit will be very different from the initial plans because it is taking place at a critical moment for European security.
On Wednesday, the 32 allied leaders will begin the first of two days of work dedicated to strengthening collective defense, deepening global partnerships and increasing long-term support for Ukraine, the latter of which is considered the “most urgent.”
“This summit will be very different from the initial plans because it is taking place at a critical time for European security,” said one Alliance official, who asked not to be named. “Russia is in a fairly comfortable position today. They think they can just wait.”
NATO hopes to approve a substantial aid package for Ukraine that will address the most immediate assistance – in particular the delivery of anti-aircraft defences and artillery ammunition – also stopped long-term support through coordination by the Alliance of international military aid to kyiv and the training of Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukraine will not yet be formally invited to join NATO. However, kyiv wants it to be noted that its entry into the organisation is irreversible.
The idea is for an allied three-star general to coordinate the delivery of the aid to Ukraine from a base in Germany and logistics hubs in Romania, Slovakia and Poland, according to allied sources, although kyiv will be responsible for bringing the equipment into its territory.
In addition, the allies are expected to agree on a Annual financial commitment of at least 40 billion euros for Ukrainebased on the amount they have provided to the country each year since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The summit declaration will refer to Ukraine’s future in NATO, but A formal invitation to join will not yet be extended given the division between the allies and the fact that Ukraine remains at war with Russia. However, kyiv wants it to be noted that its entry into the organisation is irreversible.
Meanwhile, the allies will continue to sign security agreements with Ukraine and work on the interoperability of their forces and the strengthening of their military industry.
Support for Ukraine will be discussed again on Thursday at a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, a forum for consultation and decision-making between the two sides, in which Zelensky will participate.
Deterrence and defence beyond Ukraine
The leaders will devote their first day of work to the Alliance’s deterrence and defence policy. They plan to endorse a commitment to defence industry cooperation on both sides of the Atlantic to boost production, and better prepare for the ballistic missile threat with a new base in Poland for the Aegis Ashore missile shield.
Military spending will be another big issue at a time when 23 allies have reached the milestone of investing at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense.
New alliances at a global level?
NATO is convinced that its security is not regional but global, and therefore wants to strengthen its partnerships with countries around the world, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea).
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has singled out Iran and North Korea for instigating the war in Ukraine by supplying Russia with drones and missiles, while he says China is propping up Russia’s “war economy” and providing it with microelectronics and other dual-use goods for the war.
In parallel, the leaders hope to approve a new strategy to address the challenges but also the opportunities with the countries of the southern neighbourhood, for which they are expected to appoint a special representative.
The leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand will join the session on Thursday, as well as European Council President Charles Michel and EU foreign minister Josep Borrell.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz will be the country’s representative at the Summit.
Katz will participate in two events at the summit, one hosted by President Biden and another hosted by his U.S. counterpart, Antony Blinken, The Times of Israel reported, without providing further details about either meeting.
The shadow of Donald Trump
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that the summit comes at “the best of times, and at the worst of times.”
“The best of times, in the sense that the Alliance knows what it’s about: deterring Russia. Alliance members are spending more,” he said. “But it’s also something of the worst of times because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending, and concerns about the reliability of the United States,” he explained.
…it is something of a worst of times because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending, and concerns about the reliability of the United States
Trump, who has in the past expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long been critical of NATO.which it considers an unfair burden on the United States, which spends much more than any other ally on this mechanism.
Trump, who is slightly ahead of Biden in the polls, says he can stop the war, and his advisers have raised the possibility of making future U.S. aid conditional on Ukraine entering into negotiations to cede territory.
France, where President Emmanuel Macron has considered sending troops to Ukraine, now has its own political situation to sort out, with difficult inter-party wrangling over naming a new government after the left unexpectedly snatched victory from the far right in parliamentary elections that ended without an absolute majority.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Putin days after his country assumed the rotating EU presidency and shortly before the NATO summit.
Five interesting facts that the NATO summit will leave behind
- The summit takes place after the accession of two countries to NATO: Finland and Sweden.
- It will be the diplomatic debut for the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmerwho will meet privately with President Biden on Wednesday at the White House.
- According to diplomatic sources, The United States wants a summit without drama and to avoid the recriminations of last year’s meeting in Lithuania, where Zelensky failed to convince members to allow his country to join the alliance.
- At this summit, the allies are expected to confirm the former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte as successor to Jens Stoltenberg from 1 October, after ten years in office.
- US authorities began applying this Monday traffic restrictions in washingtonResidents can review the map and the complete list of road and street restrictions online, which will be subject to change until Thursday, when the meeting ends.
STEPHANY ECHAVARRÍA
International Editor
TIME
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