The death of the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash in the Russian region of Tver last Wednesday (23) – an incident that the American president, Joe Biden, and the Ukrainian, Volodymyr Zelensky, suggested was a vendetta by Vladimir Putin – instantly raised the question: what will be the future of the paramilitary group?
The number 2 of Wagner, Dmitry Utkin, was also on the plane, which casts doubt on the next steps of the group, which had already stopped helping Russian forces in the war in Ukraine after the unsuccessful mutiny of June 24th.
With the general belief that the plane crash was Putin’s response to the rebellion, one hypothesis is a new riot. The British newspaper The Sun published statements by members of the Wagner Group who said they would organize “a second Justice March in Moscow”.
However, experts doubt this possibility – partly because, with the death of its leaders, Wagner was left without a brain, but also because of the fear of an aggressive response from the Kremlin.
“Putin has sent a clear message to other potential rivals that he remains firmly in control and that the consequence of betrayal is death,” said retired US Colonel John B. Barranco, in an article for the Atlantic Council think tank.
In Europe, even with the group no longer helping Russia in the Ukraine war, Wagner still provokes fear. Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania demanded on Monday (28) that Belarus expel the mercenaries from their territory.
The statement came after the dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, said that the Wagner Group would remain in his country, where members of the paramilitary group moved after the failed riot in June.
Lukashenko made this statement after Radio Free Europe, a US government-funded news agency, revealed satellite images showing a Wagner Group camp being dismantled in the country.
Putin has indicated he still has an interest in the mercenary group’s services, as he signed a decree requiring members of militias like Wagner to pledge allegiance to the national flag. At the end of the June mutiny, he had given the mercenaries three options: join regular Russian troops, go to Belarus, or demobilize.
In an interview with People’s Gazettemilitary analyst and reserve colonel Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes Filho stated that, after Prigozhin’s death, the Wagner Group should decrease “considerably” in size and its members will have to choose between three paths.
The first would be to accept the Russian Defense Ministry’s proposal, signing contracts and joining the country’s armed forces; the second would be to be recruited by other private Russian military companies or even by Russian intelligence or security agencies; or stay in the group.
Gomes Filho downplayed the possibility of a representative Wagner uprising against the Russian president. “I don’t think the group, as an organized whole, will rise up against Putin. However, I do not rule out that isolated elements, dissatisfied with the course of the war, or with the treatment given by the government to veterans of the group, or to the families of those killed in combat, may try an individual action”, he said.
The military analyst also does not believe that the Wagner can return to Ukraine, from where he withdrew after the June rebellion.
“I don’t believe that private groups will receive areas for action on the combat front again, as happened with the Wagner Group in Bakhmut”, said Gomes Filho. “The possible exception is the Chechens, led by [Ramzan]
Kadyrov, who swore allegiance to Putin and have their own characteristics. As for the rise of a new leadership, I believe that the Russian government will put a new leader in the Wagner group who is absolutely trusted by Putin.”
Africa, present and future
A few days before he died, Prigozhin had posted a video showing that he was in Africa, where the group acted or acts in countries like Libya, Mali, Sudan and the Central African Republic and is involved in the exploration of gold, diamonds and oil. At the end of July, he had been spotted at a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg.
Nathalia Dukhan, a researcher at The Sentry, a political organization based in Washington, told Reuters that the Wagner Group still interests Putin precisely because of this African connection.
“Wagner has been a successful tool for Russia to expand its influence efficiently and brutally,” he said. “In the midst of all the turmoil between Putin and Prigozhin, Wagner’s operations in Central Africa deepened, with greater direct involvement of the Russian government.”
For Gomes Filho, the members of Wagner who work in Africa should remain in the group in the name of this partnership. “The group’s business on that continent, in addition to being very profitable, meet Russia’s geopolitical interests,” said the analyst.
“It should also be considered that the mercenaries who work there have already established bonds of trust with the African authorities that hired them. Thus, in a convergence of interests of the members of the group, the Russian government itself and the African governments of the countries where they operate, it is likely that Wagner will continue to operate in Africa”, said Gomes Filho.
#Wagner #Group #uncertain #future #Prigozhins #death