PoderData shows that 90% of those who want Bolsonaro and 83% of those who prefer Lula say they are totally decided on the vote
Search PowerDate held from the 10th to the 12th of April shows that only one in 10 people who today intend to vote for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the 1st round considers the possibility of changing candidates until the elections. With Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)83% say they are sure of the vote.
THE PowerDate asked the interviewees this question – if they are sure they will vote for the candidate they choose today or if they can still change their mind and choose another candidate – right after asking them about their voting intention, considering the scenario with all the names. Below are the rates of pre-candidates who score 3% or more in voting intentions in the 1st round.
In the electorate as a whole, 73% say they are sure they will vote for the candidate they prefer today. The rate is below that recorded by those who would vote for Lula today and those who want Bolsonaro.
THE PowerDate also stratified the answers by sex, age, region, schooling and family income. Today, the lowest rates of vote certainty are among the elderly aged 60 and over, in the South and among the electorate with a family income of up to 2 minimum wages, all at 68%.
POWERDATA
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POWERDATACAST
THE Power 360 it’s the PowerDate publish every 15 days the PowerDataCast, dedicated exclusively to the debate of electoral and public opinion polls. The last episode, still with data from the previous round, had the participation of Deyvid Bacelar, general coordinator of the FUP (Frente Única do Petroleiro).
Watch (25min31s):
METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was held from April 10 to 12, 2022. 3,000 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 322 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Due to this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results for some questions is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossing of variables can happen due to occurrences of non-response. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power 360 Journalism. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-00368/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
THE Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, editorial director of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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