The governor of Bankitalia Ignazio Visco
Visco: “Growth cut by 1.4% in 2022”
In the Eurosystem’s early June projections, euro area growth in 2022 was reduced to 2.8%, from 4.2% expected in December. This implies an expansion of less than 1% during the year as the increase has already been acquired during the year. Not only: “In an adverse scenario characterized by a stoppage of supplies“of gas from Russia “from the third quarter of this year, only partially replaced by other sources, the product would record a contraction in the average of the two-year period 2022-23, to return to growth in 2024”. It is not good news that the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco from the shareholders’ meeting of Abi, albeit made less dramatic by the fact that private savings hold up well. “Consumer prices in the euro area increased by 8.6% in June compared to the same period last year – says Visco – mainly due to gas with prices that have risen sharply from 80 to 180 euros per megawatt hour in Junewhile they were equal to 30 euros a year agowhen the flows had already decreased, and a little more than 10 before the pandemicsto. Inflation is expected to return to around 2% in 2024.
The Governorafter recalling the next interventions of the ECB – rate hike on 21 July and further tightening in September, but also flexible purchases of government bonds – reported that only the announcement of the Frankfurt allowed the spread to deflate, after exceeding 250 basis points. On futurethe uncertainty is maximum: “The full success of monetary policy will depend also by the shared commitment, in fact, in the proposals and requests for budget interventions, to keep public debts on a path that continues to ensure full sustainability – he continued Visco. The Italian economy is expected to grow in line with the euro area in the two-year period 2022-2023. However, the risks globally are significant. In this delicate phase, the contribution that the financial system is called upon to provide in terms of allocating credit flows and supporting the economy it is particularly important “. An intervention, that of Visco, which has also substantially required a squeeze by the banks, which can only continue with the prudent management they had in recent years with the consideration, however, of the new emergencies that continue to be felt.
The new forms of credit and crypto risk
The recent acceleration in the use of new technologies has exposed to greater risks that have multiplied in recent months, with the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, although there are no indications of successful attacks. But in the face of the 12 incidents reported throughout 2021the first semester has already seen some 8, of which 5 attributable to a single attack against an external service provider. “There are crypto-assets that have no hedging in terms of assets, real or financial, against which they are issued; they are therefore devoid of intrinsic value and subject to extremely high volatility ”concluded Visco. But from his words comes an invitation to find the best way to regulate crypto activities.
Patuelli: continue with the tax reforms
“To attract savings towards investments in Italy it is necessary to continue with tax reforms: the strengthening of PIR goes in this right direction, but this reform is not enough to attract huge liquidity parked“. He is convinced of it Antonio Patuelli, president of the ABI, during the report. For the executive, it is necessary to reduce the tax burden on stable and non-speculative investments to trigger a more robust virtuous circuit to favor the transformation of liquidity into productive investments that are burdened by double taxation on company profits and on dividends.
“Important – he added – it will be the entry into force of the European Commission’s proposal for tax incentives for increases in corporate equity. It is necessary to rationalize and simplify tax regulations, avoiding constant changes and also guaranteeing prospective legal certainty. It must never be forgotten that the Mezzogiorno is a large area of potential for sustainable development with positive effects for the whole of Italy and the European Union“.
Franco: GDP up 3% at the end of the year. The Superbonus was definitively rejected
A rather optimistic Daniele Franco the one who intervenes at the ABI assembly before the Italian bankers and to the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco. The Minister for the Economy recognizes the great risks affecting the macroeconomic situation, the extreme volatility of the markets, the burden of inflation on households and businesses, but invites us not to give in to pessimism, to be fully committed as a government, as companies and as social partners, because in this way “growth will not stop”. After all, there are signs of “ferment” and the numbers prove it: industrial production in the second quarter according to estimates by the Mef, it increased by 2%, so much so as to make GDP grow in a “robust” way. For this reason, the growth acquired for 2022, the one that would be obtained if GDP remained unchanged in the following quarters, is now over 3%, higher than the 2.6% estimated by Istat. in light of the data for the first three months alone. The minister, on the other hand, proved to be decidedly more pragmatic towards another of the issues still on the lips of many Italians: on the 110% Superbonus the priority is the fight against fraud and for this reason a special control room will be set up at the Mef, in which they will participate also other ministries, Gdf and the Revenue Agency, with the aim of recovering the sums collected illegally.
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