Although the start-up for the restoration of the relations between Colombia and Venezuela began to walk since the arrival to power of Gustavo PetroAt the moment, more than a materialization of the facts, there have only been appointments and speeches that have not been fully implemented, in part because there are a few issues to be resolved within the deteriorated bilateral relationship.
Caracas, which has shown interest in normalizing the relationship as soon as possible, has run into a neighbor who seems to want to go slower, although with a clear interest in resuming ties at different levels: commercial, migratory, security, diplomatic and, the that seems more urgent, the border reactivation.
(Also read: Maduro and Petro appoint ambassadors, in a new step to resume relations)
The visit made on July 28 to the border state of Táchira by Colombian Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva, where he agreed with his Venezuelan counterpart, Carlos Faría, that as of August 8 the restoration would be a reality, was followed by a series of side and side ads and intentions.
On Tuesday, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López assured that, on direct instructions from the president Nicholas Madurowould seek to communicate with his Colombian counterpart with a view to reestablishing military relations.
That same day, the Venezuelan president said through a video that “he extended his hand (to Gustavo Petro) to work together.” Then a rumor arose of Maduro’s possible visit to Bogotá, a scenario that Petro declined, although he insisted that his government seeks to reestablish “commercial, cultural, social, family and military relations.”
(You may be interested in: Venezuela proposes to restore the military relationship with Colombia)
Proof of this occurred just two days later, when Venezuela and Colombia appointed their respective ambassadors to advance in the normalization of their diplomatic relations, broken since 2019 after Iván Duque’s recognition of the Venezuelan opposition Juan Guaidó as interim president.
the former chancellor Felix Plasencia was appointed ambassador in Bogotá, while former senator Armando Benedetti He will be sent to Caracas, in what is seen as a great step to strengthen the bond plagued by tensions that led to the loss of diplomatic contact and the closure of consulates and flights, as well as border crossings.
“Although Petro himself has said that it is a process that is going to take place gradually, the Maduro government wants to speed it up and even open the embassy next week, since he is desperate for international recognition of Colombia,” he tells him. to EL TIEMPO Daniel Arias, regional development expert.
For Arias, Petro’s attitude is due to the fact that he cannot risk that the anti-madurista factors that are in Colombia “rise up against him” by assuring that he supports “an enemy.” “Therefore, this is going to be a very slow and negotiated process because he doesn’t want the wrath of the United States either,” says the political scientist.
This added to the fact that although the announcement of resuming consular services seems easy, there is still a long way to go. Hence, Venezuela put one of its strongest cards. Plasencia is a career diplomat with more than 30 years in the service.
The diplomat and university professor Jesús Mazzei, who has known Plasencia since the beginning of his career, assured that “he will not improvise.”
(You can read: These are the keys to reestablishing Colombia-Venezuela relations)
(The Maduro government) is desperate for international recognition of Colombia
“He is an experienced, skillful and intelligent figure for such delicate scenarios, where you have to move with an extremely intelligent president, such as Petro”, adds Arias on the other hand.
For its part, Colombia bet on Benedetti, who is not a diplomat, but does have experience in politics and, in particular, is close to Petro.
“He is probably one of the few people to whom Petro answers the phone,” says Ronal Rodríguez, director of the Venezuela Observatory at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá, who considers that this aspect is a plus in reestablishing relations.
“You have to keep in mind that Benedetti knows how to negotiate in difficult situations and has the possibility of reaching agreements with complex actors,” he adds. Something essential when it is estimated that starting up the consular scaffolding will cost some 26,000 million pesos.
The border challenge
There are not a few hot topics that must be resolved before Venezuela can ensure that it normalized its historic relationship with Colombia. The porous 2,219-kilometer border will be one of the most delicate points, since migration, trade and security converge in an area with the presence of guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug traffickers.
Precisely, Petro said on Friday that what follows is the opening of the border not only for pedestrians, but also for trade and production. Although the pedestrian crossing at the border is open but restricted by schedules, in the surroundings of the Simón Bolívar international bridge the merchants have regrouped and even begin to do cleaning work waiting for the announcements. However, the network of corruption and crime that surrounds the area is a task that is rarely talked about.
“Within the framework of this new relationship, it is important to look at the priorities on Petro’s agenda: the environment and peace. This is very problematic for Venezuela, which has serious environmental problems. In addition, total peace in Colombia implies that the ELN is recognized as a binational actor, something complex with a regime that refuses to recognize the presence of the guerrilla group in its territory,” says Rodríguez.
(Also: Interview with the last Colombian ambassador in Caracas)
And it is that although the presence of irregular groups in Venezuela has been denounced repeatedly, Chavismo prefers to remain silent. Even the deaths of leaders of the FARC dissidents in Venezuelan territory have not been the subject of public discussion by Maduro, to the point that the alleged attack against ‘Iván Márquez’ and his refuge in hospitals in Caracas remained as rumours.
According to Arias, the accusations made by previous governments about the Venezuelan administration’s shelter for FARC and ELN dissidents should be ironed out so that military relations can be reestablished.
Migrants in the spotlight
The migration issue is crucial, when thousands of people cross the border every day and Colombia welcomes two of the six million Venezuelans who have migrated due to the crisis in their country.
This is an issue that generates fear and has been handled with tweezers by the new Colombian administration, given that the mere mention of a possible voluntary return plan caused suspicion in a very sensitive area.
In this sense, Rodríguez highlights that the continuity of the Temporary Protection Statute, ensuring that migration management is directed towards integration, combating xenophobia and leading a diplomacy that allows obtaining resources should be some of the priorities to take into account.
But the political field is under pressure. Guaido, who is aware of the loss of Colombia as an ally, criticized Petro’s decisions this week. “I would have expected that the first thing that President Petro would have done was attend to the most vulnerable, not appoint ambassadors,” he argued.
(Keep reading: High expectations for the reopening of the border between Colombia and Venezuela)
monomers
On the other hand, the Colombian President stated that one of his purposes is “to ensure that the price of fertilizers to produce in the field can be substantially reduced in order to lower the price of food”, referring to Monómeros, the subsidiary petrochemical company of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) with Colombian state participation and of which Guaidó came to have control in 2019 amid legal disputes.
The company, which became a breeding ground for corruption – in 2019 the expenses related to this amounted to about 4,000,000 dollars, according to unofficial sources – has had a new manager and board of directors since Thursday, after that the government of Nicolás Maduro and Venezuelan shareholders filed the minutes for that purpose.
Now, it will be the Superintendency of Companies that defines the future management of the company, which as things are going would return to the hands of Chavismo.
(You can see: Live: Guaidó talks about relations between Colombia and Venezuela)
Trade, a priority
Due to the fact that normalization would boost commercial exchange, which was close to 7.2 billion dollars in 2008, but collapsed with the partial closure of the border in 2015 and total closure in 2019, this seems to be one of the most important aspects, less for Maduro, when the Colombo-Venezuelan Chamber manages projections of 800 to 1,200 million dollars in 2022, after last year the figure was around 400 million.
But the political scientist Arias warns that “it will be necessary to see what the true cross-border relationship will be so that Colombia can have politically neutral relations without falling into conflicts with the opposition.”
(Also: Chavismo asks Colombia to hand over the opposition Julio Borges)
It will be necessary to see what the true cross-border relationship will be so that Colombia can have politically neutral relations
And it is that those who emerge the most weakened from the current panorama are the Venezuelan opponents, even requested by Maduro to be extradited by Colombia, as is the case of Julio Borges, accused of being the intellectual author of the frustrated assassination of the Venezuelan president.
For Mazzei, the most urgent thing is to have a head of mission in both countries. “This would make it possible to establish relations in a wide margin, not only giving way to the commercial, but also to the academic and cooperation.”
And it is that in all this framework to be resolved, Mazzei warns that one of the most important points will be knowing if Petro is going to take hold with the radical left, which Maduro represents, or if on the contrary he will align himself with a moderate left raised by Gabriel Boric in Chile, with whom he has already met.
ANA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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