Venezuela Elections: Is Nicolás Maduro betting on a comeback in the polls through dialogue with the United States?

ANDThe United States and Venezuela will begin a new round of talks starting this Wednesday. That was the announcement made on Monday night by President Nicolás Maduro, who said he wants to put aside the conflict with Washington.

The Biden administration has been in direct talks with representatives of the ruling party for over a year, a channel that had been broken with the arrival of Juan Guaidó, proclaimed interim president without Maduro’s approval and who was recognized by more than 50 countries, but which after the decline of this Washington resumed with Chavismo.

However, and despite the fact that several months ago reliefs were consolidated that especially impacted the oil sector, the government declined the dialogues because Venezuela has insisted that the United States has not complied with the agreements – sanctions remain in place – and that what was signed in Qatar (a meeting that was denied in 2023 but confirmed by Chavismo in April 2024) has been violated by the Americans.

For this reason, it was news that 26 days before the presidential elections, Nicolás Maduro announced that he was resuming dialogue with the United States, with news of seats at the table.

The United States on Tuesday called for a “good faith” dialogue process that it will resume with the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and reiterated its request that the presidential elections on July 28 in the South American country be competitive and inclusive.

“We welcome dialogue in good faith. We are aware that democratic change will not be easy and requires serious commitment,” he told Efe a spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

A desperate measure by Nicolás Maduro?

For some, this is a desperate measure by Maduro after the electoral simulation held last Sunday. Although the The National Electoral Council did not provide participation figures, only announcing that voting takes 38 seconds, but it remains to be seen whether the data handled by the government will lead it to make its decision.

I have accepted the proposal of the US government to resume direct talks. Jorge Rodriguez and Hector Rodriguez will be there and we will debate and seek new agreements to comply with what was signed in Qatar.

Unlike the December referendum on the territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela, polling stations were packed with voters this weekend, sending a warning: Venezuelans will go out to vote en masse on July 28.

So what is the problem for Chavismo? Polls give opposition candidate Edmundo González the favorite. The latest study by the consulting firm Datincorp, from May, showed that González has a 62 percent approval rating, compared to 20.33 percent for Nicolás Maduro.

“I have accepted the proposal of the US government to resume direct talks. Jorge Rodríguez and Héctor Rodríguez will be there and we will debate and seek new agreements so that what was signed in Qatar is fulfilled,” said Maduro on Monday night in the last edition of his television program, Con Maduro +, the broadcast will cease to dedicate himself to the campaign that begins this Thursday.

A strategy by Nicolás Maduro to gain time

“If there are elections, it is because there is a negotiation,” said an opposition source to EL TIEMPO. Perhaps that is Maduro’s bet, given what is happening in the electorate.

For the prosecutor in exile, Zair Mundaray, what the Venezuelan president is looking for is to gain time. “This poses a new cycle that is already known; every time the dictatorship sees its hold on power compromised, it appeals to dialogue and to signing commitments that it will never fulfill.”

“This creates a new cycle that is already familiar: every time the dictatorship sees its hold on power compromised, it calls for dialogue and signing commitments that it will never fulfill.”

The Biden administration has been questioned on several occasions for its “weak” character towards the Venezuelan government.

In December of last year, everyone was stunned when the US exchanged Alex Saab for 10 American prisoners.

But, months ago, something similar had happened, when it was learned that the nephews of First Lady Cilia Flores were released from prison in exchange for other Americans imprisoned in Venezuela.

The only thing that has remained is the economic sanctions regime, although some restrictions have been lifted.

The opposition will participate in dialogues with the United States

The Venezuelan opposition is having serious difficulties negotiating with the regime because it does not have enough incentives to offer Maduro, beyond turning to the international community and relying on US and European Union sanctions.

However, on Tuesday, the Unitary Platform announced that it was activating the “negotiating delegation to participate in achieving the most normal possible environment in the electoral process,” according to Omar Barboza, executive secretary of the Unitary Democratic Platform, who ratified the willingness to dialogue “for the peace of Venezuela and the tranquility of all Venezuelans.”

The Unitary Platform announced that it was activating the “negotiating delegation to participate in achieving the most normal possible environment in the electoral process”

The United States has played a key role in the development of events in Venezuela. Since the 2002 coup against Hugo Chavez, the government has accused Washington of being involved in any action against the government.

In more recent history, Gustavo Petro and Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva have made efforts to “guide” Maduro towards the path of democracy, or at least they have publicly demonstrated this.

At the beginning of the year, it was reported that Colombia was preparing a document containing the conditions for a plebiscite on the same day as the presidential elections. However, that proposal died.

A few days ago, a rumour emerged that the Colombian embassy in Caracas was preparing another document. This newspaper consulted sources from the diplomatic representation. “It is not true,” said the source.

Ana Maria Rodriguez Brazon – Weather correspondent – Caracas