US presidential election|Historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the next president nine times out of ten over the past 40 years.
The summary is made by artificial intelligence and checked by a human.
Historian Allan Lichtman predicted the winner of the US presidential election.
Lichtman has correctly predicted election winners since 1984, except for 2000.
According to Lichtman, Kamala Harris will win the November election.
According to the prediction of the 538 site, Harris will win 57 times out of 100.
Election predictions “Nostradamus”, a 77-year-old historian Allan Lichtmansaid on Thursday For The New York Times (NOW) his own prediction for the winner of the November US presidential election.
From the 1984 election onwards, Lichtman has predicted the winner of the election correctly almost without exception. Only the 2000 election prediction went wrong: At that time, the Democrats Al Gore and Republicans George W. Bush fought an amazingly close election all the way to the Supreme Court.
Bush won when the Supreme Court ruled that he carried the state of Florida by just 537 votes. Lichtman claims the result can be explained by thousands of rejected votes that should have gone to Gore, says, among other things The Guardian.
Lichtman’s the prediction is based on 13 claims. Eight of them must be true for the sitting president’s party to win. If less than eight is true, the challenger party, in this case the Republicans, wins. The claims are as follows:
1. Party Mandate: After a midterm election, the incumbent president’s party has more seats in the House of Representatives than after the last midterm election.
2. Competition: The candidate of the party in power has no serious challenger.
3. Position: The sitting president is a candidate.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party campaign in the election.
5. Short-term economic situation: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
6. Long-term economic situation: The real economic growth per person during the previous election period is equal to or greater than during the two previous election periods.
7. Political changes: The administration of the sitting president is implementing significant changes in domestic politics.
8. Social unrest: There is no prolonged unrest during the tenure of the sitting president.
9. Scandals: The administration of the sitting president has not been mired in a significant scandal.
10. Foreign Policy/Military Policy Failure: The sitting president’s administration has not failed significantly in foreign or military policy.
11. Success in foreign policy/military policy: The administration of the sitting president has been significantly successful in foreign or military policy.
12. Charisma of the sitting president: The sitting president is a charismatic person or a national hero.
13. Challenger’s charisma: The challenger is not a charismatic person or a national hero.
Historian Allan Lichtman is known as the Nostradamus of election predictions. The picture is from 2012.
Lichtman predicted to the NYT that eight of the 13 statements, items 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 11, are true. That means the incumbent’s party’s nominee will win in November.
“Terrible Harris is the next president of the United States. At least that’s my prediction for this race. However, the final result depends on you, so go and vote,” says Lichtman.
After a sitting Democratic president Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy in late July, Harris’s favored Republican nominee Donald Trump against has grown. The latest polls favor Harris.
The 538 site that compiles its own forecast from election polls forecast according to Harris wins 57 times out of 100 and Trump 42 times out of 100. Less than one time out of a hundred, neither candidate gets a majority of voters.
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