The news – not officially confirmed by the US Administration – that Joe Biden had finally accepted that Ukraine can use the MGM-140 ATACMS to the maximum of their range has generated unusual expectation, as if something like this were going to drastically change the course of the war, just when a thousand days have passed since the start of the Russian invasion. Reality, however, indicates something different.
First of all, it must be reiterated that there is no weapon (with the exception of nuclear weapons) that alone can guarantee victory on the battlefield. The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) are short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles manufactured by Lockheed Martin in five versions, ranging from the M39 model – which carries submunitions and with a range of about 165 km – to the M57 model – which It can carry a single explosive charge of about 250 kg up to a distance of about 300 km. Ukraine has already had this material since the fall of last year and has been using it in dribs and drabs since then, both from the American M142 HIMARS launchers and from the British and German M270 MLRS.
The problem is that, on the one hand, most of them are M39: shorter range and with a probable circular error of about 10 meters, which makes them hardly useful in guaranteeing the destruction of a relevant target. And, on the other hand, so far Washington has only allowed it to use them against Russian targets within the Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow, such as Crimea and air bases in Berdyansk and Lugansk. Although the US has progressively relaxed its position, especially after Russia’s use of some 40 North Korean Hwasong 11-A and 11-B ballistic missiles, between December 2023 and May of this year, allowing it to also use them against targets located on Russian soil very close to the border with Ukraine.
But it is also estimated that kyiv has not received more than about 120 ATACMS and it is not easy to quickly increase the delivery of many more of these missiles, taking into account the limitations of the production chain to serve the dozen. of countries that have acquired them and the needs of US forces to maintain their own arsenals. With an estimated cost of one million dollars per missile, the manufacturer says it has produced about 4,000 since they were first used in combat in 1991.
This means that, even if Washington lifts all restrictions on its use, the situation cannot change substantially immediately. Of course, that does not mean that its unrestricted use is not a problem for the invading forces – just think of the impact they would have if they manage to disable the bridge over the Kersh Strait – but it forces us to relativize its importance when time The balance is tipping in favor of Moscow and the shadow of President-elect Donald Trump is darkening the options for Ukrainian victory.
It is also not clear whether kyiv will now be able to use these missiles against any target located on Russian soil or if it will only be allowed to do so in Kursk – a territory in which Ukrainian forces launched an incursion last August and of which they now only retain about 500 square km–, while North Korean troops are preparing to collaborate with the Russians in their complete recovery.
In short, although Joe Biden is now trying to correct some of the mistakes made in supporting the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that does not compensate for the notorious demographic, industrial and economic inferiority of Ukraine in a conflict that is approaching its third anniversary.
The American president may calculate that kyiv’s plight and its demonstrated industrial capacity to manufacture its own ballistic missile make it very likely that, mired in an existential war, Zelensky will decide to use all means at his disposal to avoid defeat – including British missiles. air-to-ground cruiser SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, with a range of up to 250 km, although it only has five Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer aircraft to launch them–, crossing the limits that its allies want to establish due to fear of Russian retaliation. And hence now Biden decides to take this step and leaves the rest of the allies wondering what to do.
But none of that changes the overall impression: time is on Russia’s side and Trump’s entry into the game does not bode well for Ukrainian aspirations for territorial integrity.
The announcement, in addition, gives Putin the opportunity to rearrange his pieces on the battlefield, putting potential ATACMS targets out of reach, before kyiv takes the next step. A predictable movement that does not reduce their ability to continue attacking both the Ukrainian troops – with the main effort focused on breaking the front in Donbas – and the energy and communications infrastructure, with the aim of making life even more difficult. for a civilian population that has been suffering punishment for too long.
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