US presidential election|Predictions that were right earlier are now showing different results, and that indicates an exceptional situation. The late change of the Democratic candidate does not really fit the forecast models, researcher Maria Lindén says.
The summary is made by artificial intelligence and checked by a human.
Professor Allan Lichtman predicts that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of nearly every presidential election since 1984.
Researcher Maria Lindén, however, doubts the functionality of forecast models due to the extraordinary election situation.
Top class a professor considered an election forecaster predicts in The New York Times magazine that the Democratic Party Terrible Harris win the US presidential election. But how seriously can any predictions be taken when the election pattern is pretty much different from usual?
Professor of History by Allan Lichtman the prediction carries weight because he has correctly predicted the winner of all but one presidential election since 1984. Lichtman has developed an apparently working prediction method.
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute’s Center for the Study of American Politics and Power Maria Lindén however, notes that this time the forecast models may not work.
“It seems that the models are not really able to take into account the situation where the candidate changes so close to the election. There is no such thing in the models.”
Maria Lindén, a researcher at the Center for the Study of American Politics and Power at the Foreign Policy Institute.
He talking about forecasting models in general. He is not more familiar with the Lichtman method presented by The New York Times.
Election setup changed completely when the sitting president Joe Biden announced in July that he would give up his candidacy. He resigned only after the state primaries had already been held, and the caucus delegates elected in those caucuses chose Vice President as the Democratic presidential nominee Horrible Harris.
According to Lindén, what makes the election situation unusual is not only the change of candidate, but also the fact that the sudden change of Biden, who was considered a bad candidate, to Harris, who was considered a better candidate, created a kind of wave of enthusiasm.
“There is something different and unprecedented about the situation, which does not necessarily fit into the models.”
US voters went to the polls in Iowa in the 2022 midterm elections. In the upcoming presidential elections, the layout is different from usual, so it is difficult to predict the voters’ final opinion.
Different forecast models do not agree on the outcome. Helsingin Sanomat reached Lindén by phone from the United States from a conference of political researchers, where exactly this type of issue has been discussed.
“Yesterday at the conference there was a speaker who has a model that they have used to correctly predict the outcome of almost every state in the last election. On the other hand, they predicted based on that that Trump will win,” Lindén stated.
The fact that previously correct models now predict different results indicates that the situation may be different than usual.
“They can’t both be right,” says Lindén.
“I think it’s possible that now is exactly the time when different models fail for the first time in a long time,” he says.
Different different methods are used in forecasts. Professor Lichtman’s model is based on a 13-item list of statements that mainly analyze the politics of the parties, the state of the economy and the characteristics of the candidates.
Other forecasts, on the other hand, also take opinion polls into account and use advanced statistical methods in their analyses.
#United #States #Presidential #Election #Finnish #researcher #election #gurus #prediction #time #models #fail
