The news anticipated by Reuters of a possible extension of DTAs must have disturbed the sleep of some bankers and made them even more comfortable for others. But let’s go in order. Deferred tax assets (Dta) are a precious tool for the banking world: they are the possibility of transforming tax losses into tax credit (and therefore into capital) in the event of a merger with other banks against the payment of “commissions”, deductible for IRES and IRAP purposes, equal to 25% of the amount.
There possible extension of another six months, still under consideration by the Treasury, it represents an interesting clue to what is thought by the parts of the ministry. It cannot be an assist for the Unicredit-Mps affair because from the Eurotower in Frankfurt they were quite categorical: there will be no further extensions and by 31 December the Treasury will have to dispose of its stake in the Rocca. So, just over two months remain to resolve the question that always seems to be about to be defined but then promptly runs aground. Orcel’s strategy is clear: throw the ball forward hoping for better conditions. From Via XX Settembre, on the other hand, they would like to limit the disbursements. Normal negotiations, but time is running out.
Rather, however, it seems that extending the possible use of DTAs could be a further assist to Orcel, who could try to scale Banco Bpm through a takeover bid.. From Meda square all is silent, even if accredited sources report a Giuseppe Castagna – CEO of the bank – which for the moment does not want to think about anything other than the industrial plan for next November 5th.
It is a business plan that will arrive until 2024 and which promises to be “stand alone”, ie in which the Bank runs alone to achieve its goals. The CEO hopes not to be among the possible prey of Unicredit. But it is obvious that deferring the Dta would give Orcel more time to study the moves and define a possible climb. Among other things, among the objectives of the new CEO of Piazza Gae Aulenti there is also that of increasing the product factories. And Banco Bpm owns 20% of Anima.
In the end, the last point in favor of this move would be the possibility of further strengthening in the north, especially in Lombardy, surpassing Intesa and becoming the first operator. How much would the dealer cost? At today’s market prices around 4.3 billion, after a rise in the stock due to rumors of possible transactions.
But the “third pole” hypothesis should not be neglected either. As the Equita analysts write, in fact, the extension of the DTAs would be an assist to Castagna, who “would have more time to negotiate an agreement with Bper, benefiting from the transformation of his one billion euro of Dta, should an agreement be found for fusion. “As you remember Mf, according to Kepler the extension of the Dta would make it possible to obtain a net profit of 850 million euros in the event of a transaction between Bancp Bpm and Bper or between Banco and Popolare di Sondrio.
In this dance of possible mergers, however, there remains one point to underline. All the authorities, from the ECB to Draghi himself, continue to push for a system of aggregations that sees few large players. This, of course, is to prevent possible deterioration in credit quality from putting smaller credit institutions in difficulty. But in a world where everyone wants to eat, but nobody wants to be eaten, aggregations alone cannot arrive. We need a director who has clear ideas and above all the possibility of imposing his designs. But a figure of this type does not exist and could not even exist, because the events of the past have marked a deep furrow. The committees of inquiry, requests for the resignation of the governors of the Bank of Italy and other financial news facts frighten everyone. And therefore we remain firm to the auspices.
At the time, before being defenestrated for the events of “Bancopoli”, the number one of Palazzo Koch Antonio Fazio (whose successor was Mario Draghi himself) had adopted a sort of “moral suasion” which allowed him to have a weight in “system” operations, addressing them also in a more comprehensive perspective. Effectively, it would be strange to imagine a world of banks with 2-3 giants and then the desert. We will see.