01/14/2024 – 21:29
If weather conditions remain unfavorable in 2024, there is an expectation of price recovery for some agricultural products that fell sharply in 2023 amid increased supply, such as soybeans and corn. The assessment was made by the manager of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Carlos Alfredo Guedes.
The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to total 306.5 million tons in 2024, a drop of 2.8% compared to 2023, 8.9 million tons less, according to the third Agricultural Production Prognosis of this year. year, released by IBGE on Wednesday, 10. However, the result represents an increase of 0.1% compared to the second forecast, 317,834 tons more.
“As we haven’t started harvesting yet, it’s possible that the estimates will change a little from now on,” said Guedes. “These estimates for second-crop crops, mainly corn and cotton, can still change a lot, depending on the weather.”
The researcher considered that the weather conditions are not very favorable, even affecting important crops such as soybeans, and that the forecast for agricultural production in 2024 throughout the year will depend, above all, on the performance of second harvest crops.
“Climatic conditions are not so favorable, they are affecting important crops, we should have a 2024 harvest well adjusted to that of 2023,” he said.
For the year 2024, the prognosis indicates that the production of 2nd harvest corn should decline 12.8% compared to 2023, 13.2 million tons less, while 1st harvest corn would shrink 3.3%, 924.8 thousand tons. any less. The estimate for sorghum is a 12.1% drop in production compared to 2023, 519.6 thousand tons less, and the herbaceous cotton harvest is expected to decrease 3.3%, 254.7 thousand tons less.
On the other hand, the soybean harvest is expected to reach a new record, with 1.7% growth in production compared to 2023, 2.6 million tons more. There are estimates of increases in the production of beans, an increase of 4.2% or 123.1 thousand tons more; rice, increase of 1.6% or 162.2 thousand tons more; and wheat, up 33.0% or 2.6 million tons more.
Guedes recalls that soybeans and corn account for a large part of the Brazilian agricultural harvest, equivalent to 88.5% of the harvest determined by the IBGE Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production.
Soy accounts for more than half of production, a share of 50.4% of the Brazilian grain harvest. Corn from the 2nd harvest accounts for a share of 29.4%, and corn from the 1st harvest accounts for a further share of 8.7%.
“It is possible that we will have a price increase in 2024 on some products. Remembering that it is a price recovery, because in 2023 they fell a lot”, he said, referring to soybeans and corn.
In the case of rice, Guedes says that the grain has already seen some price recovery, as production in 2023 was closely adjusted to consumption.
“We have already noticed a recovery in bean prices also in 2024,” said Guedes. “So it is possible that some products will see a price increase in 2024 or recover their prices a little, after falling a lot in 2023.”
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