Ukraine war: European reports say Russian offensive is stalled – what does this mean and what is the outlook?

The fierce attack was launched on May 10 by President Vladimir Putin’s military command, on a front of more than 70 kilometers. Its troops managed to penetrate up to ten kilometers in some places and capture a dozen towns in the north and east of the country, in the biggest Russian advance since the fall of 2022.

After the first two weeks of the attack, European military intelligence has seen part of the Russian troops retreat

Hoping he would not need it, Zelensky had delayed taking action on a measure authorized by Congress to lower the age of compulsory conscription from 27 to 25. But in early April he was forced to sign it, to give a respite to units exhausted after twenty months of combat.

In the last week of May there was finally some good news for kyiv. The Ukrainian high command reported that “the offensive has been halted” and that although the Russians had occupied an area of ​​80 square kilometers, they had not made any new progress for several days. “After the first two weeks of the attack, European military intelligence has seen some of the Russian troops retreat, risking being trapped in pockets they could not defend,” a European military source told EL TIEMPO in Paris.

Fifty days have passed since the start of the Russian offensive, and although it is too early to say that the operation has failed, the truth is that Russian troops are far from taking or even surrounding Kharkiv, and that some of the advances of up to ten kilometers, achieved in May, have not been sustainable for the invader in the face of the resistance of the Ukrainian defenses. “However,” the source notes, “as President Zelensky warned, This may be just the first wave of a longer-term offensive.”

Cannon fodder: Russian losses on Ukrainian soil

For now, the territorial gains for the Kremlin appear limited, especially if the assessment includes a balance of the costs in casualties (soldiers killed or so seriously wounded that they will not return to combat) and in the loss of military equipment.

As analysts Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt of the New York TimesThis is due to the type of attacks the Russians launch: they send thousands of soldiers to advance under enemy fire, regardless of the fact that many of them die, because – the Russian high command believes – in the end the survivors secure the ground they have won.

“It is a style of warfare that Russian soldiers compare to being put through a meat grinder,” Barnes and Schmitt say. In the past, such bloody operations have yielded results, such as the one that ended just over a year ago with the capture of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

Such partial advances as those made by the Russians in these two months on the front north of Kharkiv lead one to conclude that, despite such high costs, there has not exactly been a success for the Kremlin.

“But Ukrainian and Western officials,” the two analysts add, “say that the tactics were less successful this spring, when Russia tried to gain territory near Kharkiv,” during the May offensive, despite the difficulties Ukrainian troops had in obtaining ammunition. That the Russians were unable to take advantage of a moment when kyiv was short of bullets and shells, and instead suffered such heavy casualties, is significant in terms of the limits of the recurrent use of their soldiers as cannon fodder.

On May 30, a report by Defence Intelligence, the intelligence and analysis unit of British Strategic Command, revealed that during that month, “the average number of Russian personnel casualties was more than 1,200 per day” – some 37,000 for the whole of May. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the figures for June were slightly lower: 33,713 Russian casualties, or a rate of 1.123 per day.

In addition, in the same month of June, Russia lost 352 tanks, 589 armored combat vehicles, 1,393 artillery systems, 22 mobile rocket launchers, 58 air defense systems, three airplanes and 997 drones, confirming that, apart from the very reprehensible sacrifice of soldiers, the cost has been high for the Kremlin in military equipment.

More than 70,000 Russian soldiers killed between May and June account for 13 percent of the total number of casualties for Putin’s army in the 27 months since the start of the war, which amounts to some 541,000 uniformed personnel. As for military equipment, suffice it to say that about 5 percent of the tanks destroyed by Ukraine from Russia were destroyed in this offensive.

“To that extent,” the European military source consulted by EL TIEMPO added, “such partial advances as those shown by the Russians in these two months on the front north of Kharkov, lead to the conclusion that, despite such high costs, there has not exactly been a success for the Kremlin.”

As for soldiers out of combat, the Russian military command does not acknowledge such a high level of casualties, and in any case points out that Russia has demonstrated an immense capacity for recruitment, which allows it to add between 25,000 and 30,000 new men to the front every month. Until when? For a country of 142 million people, recruiting more than 300,000 soldiers a year does not seem impossible.

What’s next in the Russian offensive against Ukraine

The fate of the Russian offensive launched in May is still uncertain. Even with its enormous recruiting capacity, there is debate within the Russian command about the cost-benefit ratio of losing so many soldiers and so much equipment in exchange for results that are not very tangible in terms of territorial advance. It is no small fact that, at the beginning of the offensive, Putin removed the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu.

But as Zelensky warned in mid-May, there is no need to draw definitive conclusions as this may be just the first wave of several to come from here. by September, before autumn turns the ground into a quagmire in which it is impossible to mobilize troops and equipment.

If in the first quarter, the shots were rationed at a rate of six shells per gun/day, now the limit has been raised to 40 per day.

The good news for kyiv is that, although there are still shortcomings, the flow of ammunition and new weapons supplied by European allies and the United States is improving substantially.

A detailed report by the AFP agency on Friday, citing several European military sources, said that “after months of acute shortages, the supply of Western ammunition, especially artillery shells, has accelerated (…) and supplies have improved.”

As for the crucial 155mm howitzers, the supply “has become much better for about a month now,” he told the AFP a Ukrainian sergeant known by the nom de guerre Lountik. While in the first quarter, “fire was rationed at six shells per gun/day, now the limit has been raised to 40 per day,” the sergeant added. However, in the hottest regions, such as the front north of Kharkiv, there is now “no limit,” thanks to the arrival of supplies.

Before finishing this week, Washington is expected to announce the delivery of $150 million worth of weapons, ammunition and equipment available in its depots. The shipment is expected to include ammunition for the Himars equipment, heavy mobile vehicles with multiple rocket launchers, and perhaps also long-range missiles for the Atacms systems, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers.twice the range achieved by the missile systems Ukraine has used so far.

With this equipment, Zelensky’s troops will be able to strike hard behind the Russian front lines, affecting rear areas, storage of equipment and ammunition, and supply chains. Washington has set conditions for Ukraine to use these weapons, in particular that they not be used to attack civilians within Russian territory, so that Putin cannot accuse the United States of assuming a belligerent position in the conflict.

By the second half of the year, Ukrainian pilots who 11 NATO countries are completing training to fly the F-16 fighter jets, which Denmark and the Netherlands have loaned to kyiv, will be able to operate the aircraft.

There are 61 ships that will be available for special operations over and behind enemy lines, although – as with the long-range missiles – the idea is that they cannot be used to attack Russian territory until Ukraine can use its new missile battery in the coming weeks and, Until these planes become operational in August or September, Ukrainian airlines must continue to withstand the Russian onslaught.If they succeed, kyiv will have managed to overcome the darkest days of May and June and last year.

MAURICIO VARGAS

SENIOR ANALYST EL TIEMPO

[email protected] / Instagram @mvargaslinares