Ukraine, Politi (NATO Foundation): “Invasion? Putin presses for security belt”

“An imminent invasion of Ukraine? For now there is not a single element beyond public statements”. Interviewed by Adnkronos, the director of the NATO Defense College Foundation, Alessandro Politi, sees in the massing of troops around Ukraine above all an element of pressure on the part of Russian leader Vladimir Putin “to achieve his declared goal, including in the two draft agreements with the US and NATO, to have a security zone on the western and south-western front of Russia without NATO member countries, we are talking about Belarus, Ukraine and even Georgia“.

The figures of the military encirclement of Ukraine “are reversed, one account is 70-90 thousand men, which is what some more realistic figures give, which amply allow Putin to reach his goal, one thing is to add any type of troops within a radius of 200 km and think it is part of a possible invasion “, reasons Politi.

“I wonder why Putin should invade Ukraine?“, says Politi, who also appears skeptical about the possibility of a limited incursion.”Putin seeks to obtain this type of security guarantee, occupying further parts of Ukraine means entering into a collision course with the EU and NATO as a political entity, which is not without consequences. The Germans – explains the analyst – can keep three nuclear power plants by cutting gas requirements and this would be a direct financial damage to the Russian treasury. Furthermore it would mean taking away from Putin any hope of having a side role vis-à-vis the US and NATO, in order not to be totally dependent on the Chinesewhich Chinese is not willing to engage in an invasion of Ukraine “.

The request for a written declaration that Ukraine will never join NATO “is clearly inadmissible, no one wants the return of the Brezhnev doctrine to Europe, even the Russians know it, it is part of the negotiating tactic. But a whole other set of things. to come around the Russian security requirement are negotiable“, notes Politi. Who recalls how in the former Warsaw Pact countries there are no permanent NATO bases, but troops deployed after 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea. And as in 2008, when it came to open door politics for Ukraine and Georgia “there was no formal invitation” to these two countries to join the Alliance, also because “there was no consensus among the allies”. “NATO is not the Warsaw Pact, it is only the Americans speak and the others snap to attention, consensus is the basis of the political functioning of NATO “.

“If you negotiate like professionals, it is clear that there will be a compromise, but it will not come immediately, a nine-hour negotiation marathon will certainly not be enough”, Politi remarked, recalling the need to rebuild a minimum of trust between the parties, which was greatly compromised after the invasion of Crimea. Politi hopes that “the internal dynamics of the Kremlin will not lead to the disastrous decision” of an invasion, but nevertheless recalls that NATO has made it clear that it will not intervene militarily in Ukraine, given that it is not a member country.