Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko: Ukraine will not receive air defense systems to protect thermal power plants in winter
Residents of Ukraine must prepare for the “worst winter” in history due to problems with protecting power plants amid a shortage of air defense systems. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba in an interview with a German newspaper Die Welt.
According to him, Ukrainians have already begun to buy candles en masse due to possible blackouts and firewood for heating their homes.
In parallel, the authorities are making efforts to secure their own thermal power plants, which last winter became targets for Russian missiles and drones. However, as Dmitry Kuleba believes, due to the shortage of air defense systems, this task will turn out to be much more difficult than a year ago.
We’ll close our eyes if we don’t get it [дальнобойные крылатые ракеты] Taurus, but we will get air defense systems. We try to protect our power plants as best we can. But Russians have already adapted to this. They will test our endurance again with their missiles
The minister added that Ukraine still urgently needs military assistance from Western countries and, first of all, the United States.
“If the West cannot win this war, then what kind can it win? (…) Thanks to our friends in Europe and other countries, we are not afraid of a doomsday scenario,” Dmitry Kuleba assured.
Ukraine is preparing for planned power outages in winter
However, as Ukrainian officials admit, Ukraine’s energy system, under conditions of high loads and capacity shortages, risks being on the verge of collapse even without a repeat of Russian airstrikes.
Managing director of the Kiev Center for Energy Industry Research, Alexander Kharchenko, believes that if the air temperature in the country settles below minus 10 degrees, the authorities will have to introduce standardized blackouts for at least one to two hours a day.
If there are massive airstrikes, I cannot predict the scale of the outages
His position is shared by Sergei Nagornyak, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services: he explainedthat in the summer, solar power plants helped cover the electricity shortage in the regions. In winter, when weather conditions become unfavorable, the country could again face chronic capacity shortages.
Even if there are no missile or drone attacks, we will likely have restrictions. I can assume that the planned restrictions will already be in November
However, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine officially denies the possibility of a “catastrophic scenario.” As its representatives assure, nuclear power plants (NPPs), which have managed to arrange supplies of nuclear fuel from Western countries, will allow the country to cover the generation deficit.
“This winter, all units of nuclear power plants located on the controlled territory of Ukraine will operate,” the department assures.
Ukrainian armed forces threaten to intensify attacks on Russian territories in winter
The Ukrainian side is also preparing to intensify air attacks on infrastructure and military bases. Brigadier General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Sergei Baranov, who oversees the strategic operations of UAVs, in an interview with a British publication Independent admitted that during the period of static hostilities in winter, the command intends to inflict a “destructive blow” on Russia from the air.
“We are confident that we have some of the best and most experienced UAV operators in the world. (…) Russia is careful, it has a lot of personnel and a lot of resources. They had been preparing for a war of this scale for a long time. The war is costly for the Ukrainian people,” the commander said.
He added that he expects an accelerated supply of the necessary ammunition and weapons from the West. The republic is especially interested in the GMLRS and ATACMS missiles capable of long-range attacks.
We need the same amount of ammunition that Russia spends
However, hopes for increased Western supplies, which could help Ukraine cope with the threat of a repeat of the events of the winter of 2023-2023, will most likely not come true, writes the French newspaper L’Express.
The publication’s analysts claim that the tense international situation is gradually destroying the consensus of Western countries regarding the continuation of military assistance. They admit that, “unfortunately for Kyiv,” the number of disputes and discontent among Western allies is only growing, and the country will have to rely more and more on its own strength every day.
“This threat is part of the war of attrition that has been waged in Ukraine for more than a year,” confirms Mathieu Boulègues, a junior fellow at the British think tank Chatham House.
Ukraine will not be able to significantly increase its stockpile of air defense missiles
Ukraine’s hopes for qualitatively strengthening its own air defense system remain doubtful. Thus, political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko, in a conversation with Lenta.ru, said that the reserves of air defense systems and missiles for them, which Ukraine expects to receive from the West, have practically been exhausted in European countries. The remainder, the expert believes, are used by NATO members to strengthen their own defense or sent to other allies, such as Israel and Taiwan.
“Everyone began to arm themselves very intensively. And the basis of modern confrontation is air defense. Even if Ukraine is supplied with some complexes, for example, Germany promised one or two IRIS-T systems, it will receive a clearly insufficient number of them. It’s not enough to cover even the most important infrastructure facilities,” said Bogdan Bezpalko.
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He emphasized that if the Ukrainian authorities really decide to strengthen the protection of their power plants with Western air defense systems, this will inevitably lead to a weakening of protection against air strikes on the front line. But it will not be possible to completely close the sky even with a multiple increase in Western supplies.
We will have to expose troops, command posts, headquarters, warehouses, and airfields. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have much air defense capacity. This opens up a certain number of military opportunities for Russia
The political scientist also added that last year Russia experienced certain technical difficulties with attacks on important infrastructure facilities, such as bridges or large power plants. However, after a year, the army was able to learn from the confrontation with Ukrainian air defense systems and increase its stockpile of weapons capable of destroying such targets.
“A number of objects are easy to repair, while others are difficult to disable. Simply due to the fact that the infrastructure in Ukraine is relatively well developed. In addition, we still lacked sufficiently powerful conventional ammunition. For example, Iskanders could not destroy the bridge in Zatoka in the Odessa region. Now the situation is different,” the political scientist explained.
He concluded that if Russia sets itself the political goal of destroying the enemy’s energy infrastructure, it will be much easier to do this than a year earlier.
Now this is a great danger for Ukraine and a new factor of pressure. Last year, attacks on power plants depended on political decisions. (…) And if you focus on the article [в журнале Economist] Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery]Zaluzhny, it is not worth expecting that Ukraine will be able to wage any effective fight at all
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