Ukraine, 50 billion from the EU
The agreement reached by the EU for another 50 billion euros to Ukraine has given voice, particularly in Italy, to those who maintain that the ongoing war just two hours away by plane from Rome is not “our stuff” and that it would be more useful to use that money within the European community and, specifically, in the Bel Paese. Of the 50 billion EU funds for Ukraine, Italy's share is 12-13%, therefore around 6 billion euros. In almost two years, since the beginning of Putin's invasion, the EU has already given Ukraine a total of around 85 billion (almost 35 billion were for military aid): of these, Italy has already paid around 10 billion which now, with the latest decision from Brussels, they become a total of 16 billion (10+6).
Seizing this latest EU decision, there are those who get in the way and “beat the deadlock”. In particular, in Italy the stale rumor is being passed around that the money given to Ukraine is a waste of money also because the “fascist” Zelensky has already lost the war and that, moreover, this is just as well because Putin is right in wanting to reconquer Ukraine , where the majority “wants to return to Russia” as demonstrated by the provinces that voted 90% to be with Moscow. Evidently, reality is not taken into account, much less history, as well as the security of Europe and international law.
The question is: what are the consequences if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? There are four possible scenarios designed by the experts of the ISW, Institute for the study of war.
“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army to the NATO border, from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. According to US intelligence sources, the Ukrainian military with Western support destroyed almost 90% of the Russian army that invaded the country in February 2022, but the Russians have replaced those losses and are upgrading their industrial base to compensate for the material losses at a rapid rate.”
What is worrying, according to the editors of the analysis, is that “Russia can represent a serious military threat to NATO. Since Moscow has already committed to an ambitious program of post-war military expansion, the United States cannot be certain that it will take a very long time.” But what would the cost be to the US? “The overall military potential of the United States and its NATO allies is so much greater than that of Russia that there is no reason to doubt the West's ability to defeat any conceivable Russian military. The costs of letting Russia win would be high for the US because it would be forced to deploy a considerable part of its ground forces and stealth aircraft in Eastern Europe, removing them from other areas, such as Taiwan,” the document reads.
In any case, the costs are enormous. “The entire undertaking will cost a fortune, and the cost will last as long as the Russian threat continues, potentially indefinitely. Almost any other outcome of the war in Ukraine is preferable to this one. Helping Ukraine hold its ground through continued Western military support is much more beneficial and economical for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose or freeze the conflict,” the document emphasizes. The report draws up the balance sheet in the event of a Russian victory, but it is clear what would happen on the other hand if the Ukrainians won. “The closest Russian troops to Romania would be almost 500 miles away. The Black Sea would almost become a NATO lake. Moscow would likely complete military control of Belarus and base its forces there in this scenario as well. The threat posed by such bases to NATO, however, would take on a very different aspect,” the report concludes.
Here we are. It is now two years since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and there is no sign of peace. The war continues and will continue with greater vigor in view of the spring. There is the risk, due to Putin's expansionist aims, of him also extending to the West, towards the West. In Europe, specifically in Italy, there is not full awareness that, as former Prime Minister Draghi warned some time ago: “Kiev must win the war or it will be a fatal blow for the EU”.
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