Third World war? Experts evaluate five scenarios
The invasion ofUkraine on the part of Russia can it really lead to World War III? The hypothesis exists, it is concrete and according to the analysis of the German expert Christian Kerl in the online newspaper WAZ (Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung) there are five scenarios that could lead to global conflict.
Scenario 1: accidental accident. This scenario is considered the most threatening because the probability is relatively high. Incidents involving the Russian armed forces on the one hand and NATO soldiers on the other have increased in recent weeks: the greater the nervousness, the greater the risk of misunderstandings.
For example, recently there was a near-collision between US and Russian planes over the Mediterranean Sea. The Americans complain about the dangerous provocations from the Russian side, but there are also accusations to the contrary. In one case, ten days ago, it appears that a Russian SU-35 flew only 1.5 meters on top of a US Navy plane. “What happens if a US reconnaissance plane is accidentally shot down somewhere on the border?” Asks a NATO soldier in Brussels.
Or if a Russian missile misses its target in Ukraine and lands on the territory of the BORN, in Poland or Romania? NATO headquarters recalled that Russia launched cruise missiles into Syria in 2015, which accidentally landed in Iran.
The Black Sea, through which Russian troops would probably have moved to Ukraine, is considered a particularly dangerous area. “All it takes is for a missile to move away and hit a NATO ship, and then it becomes dangerous,” says former Supreme Commander of NATO troops in Europe, James Stavridis.
Scenario 2: Cyber attacks get out of hand. If Putin continues to carry on the war, cyberattacks will likely be among his next steps. However, they could also directly or indirectly affect the countries of the BORN. There is a risk of such attacks escalating, says former NATO general Stavridis.
The president of the United States Biden clarified: “If Russia attacks the United States or an ally with asymmetrical measures – such as cyber attacks on our companies or critical infrastructure – we are ready for a response.”
Scenario 3: Putin tests the West with the breach of the border. The possibility of a complete occupation of Ukraine by Russian troops is of great concern. In this case – considered probable in NATO – the army of Putin it would not only be directly ahead of Estonia and Latvia, as it is today, but also at the borders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.
If Russian soldiers remain in Belarus, Putin’s soldiers will also have access to Poland and the Baltic states from there. This means that the alert and reaction times for the West in the event of an attack are much shorter and the entire deterrence strategy of the BORN would be under discussion, as feared at Alliance headquarters.
Scenario 4: escalation of the guerrillas. Governments of Washington and London are already planning armed aid for the Ukrainian resistance if the country were occupied by Russia. According to US plans, the CIA and possibly US Army Special Forces would also be involved in this aid.
Scenario 5: Putin attacks the West, including German soldiers. In fact, this was previously considered completely unrealistic. But the speeches of Putin however, they raise concerns that the Kremlin tsar may sooner or later follow up on the invasion of Ukraine with another attempted conquest, even though Putin recently denied he wants to re-establish a Russian “empire”. In that case, Germany too would inevitably be involved in the war. One of the scenarios now unfolding in NATO: Putin could attack the Baltic states – after all, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania they belonged to the Soviet Union until 1991.
The West knows its weaknesses: according to military strategists, Russia would invade the Baltic states within 60 hours and the BORN it would not be able to mobilize its defense forces quickly enough. The concern in the three Baltic states of becoming the next war target is great. But in Lithuania there are 500 German soldiers who are part of an outpost of the BORN, and 350 Bundeswehr troops will soon be added. For this reason alone, Germany would be involved in the conflict from the very beginning. And then there BORN, as a defensive alliance, it should use all its strength to stop such aggression. The Bundeswehr would also be needed, with nearly 14,000 German soldiers already belonging to the NATO Rapid Reaction Force.
But any military confrontation in Europe between BORN And Russia carries the risk of conventional warfare turning into nuclear war. Until now, nuclear deterrence has been seen as an assurance that there will be no war in Western Europe. But the more unpredictable Vladimir Putin becomes, the greater the doubts among security experts about how far this calculation can still be relied upon.
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