Efforts to renew the agreement appear cloudy, while experts who spoke to “Sky News Arabia” determine the causes of the grain crisis – according to their estimation – and the consequences of not renewing the agreement on the global food market.
The agreement, also known as the “Black Sea Grain Initiative”, was signed by Russia and Ukraine on July 22, 2022, with Turkish mediation and under the supervision of the United Nations. It provides for facilitating the export of Ukrainian grain piled in silos and ports as a result of the war.
After difficult negotiations, it was renewed in November for a period of 120 days, renewable if one of the parties did not object. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday that it would not agree to the extension “unless the interests of Russian agricultural producers are taken into account.”
An agreement is at stake
The Russian academic in international politics, Dmitry Viktorovich, expects the renewal to fail, accusing Western countries of having “reaped gains from the agreement at the expense of the Russian agricultural sector.”
Viktorovic bases his pessimism about the future of the agreement on 3 reasons, according to his estimation:
- The West used two ports linked to the “grain deal” to deliver radioactive materials to Ukraine.
- Failure to resolve guarantees of Russian agricultural products and ammonia access to global markets.
- The continued “unfair distribution” of grain leaving the ports; Where only the West benefits from it.
With regard to “who benefited most from the agreement,” the Russian academic believes that “the grain deal itself is an integral part of an agreement that provides, among other things, for lifting restrictions on Russian exports of foodstuffs and fertilizers, but the West has so far evaded that.” “.
The war that broke out in February 2022 caused the closure of Ukrainian ports, some of which are in territories controlled by Russia. This contributed to the crisis in the arrival of foodstuffs from the Black Sea to world markets, including wheat.
The consequences of the Russian withdrawal
The agreement allowed the export of about 20 million tons of grain, according to Abu Bakr al-Deeb, advisor to the Arab Center for Studies and expert in economic affairs, who fears that Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement and the return to halting exports “may cause famine in 2023.”
In detail, El-Deeb draws broad lines for what awaits the food markets, if the agreement is not extended, by saying:
- Millions of people in 41 countries may fall below the extreme poverty line.
- 1.5 billion people have increased hunger rates; Because Russia and Ukraine represent the weight in the global grain market.
- High global food prices and inflation rates will lead to an expansion of geopolitical tensions and conflicts between countries.
- This may prolong the war; Because Kiev may take advantage of the disruption of the agreement and the food crisis to put pressure on the world to open its arms and money coffers in front of it, to support its army in expelling Russia from Ukrainian lands.
Moscow and Washington exchange accusations about the cause of the food crisis. While Washington and its allies say that Moscow is the reason because it ignited an “unjustified war”, Moscow responds that its opponents are the reason because they “incited” Ukraine to refuse to negotiate with Russia before the war, and provided it with sufficient weapons to prolong the war. after its ignition.
And at the end of the week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the West “shamelessly buried” the grain export agreement, while his US counterpart Anthony Blinken replied that Moscow had caused “deliberately and systematically delaying grain shipments and blackmailing the world with food weapons.”
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