“Two to three months are the most dangerous.” In Kyiv they warned that Ukraine will face the most difficult and large-scale offensive of Russia

Ukraine faces Russia's most complex and far-reaching offensive since the conflict began, while Kyiv's resources are dwindling and Western aid has been significantly reduced. Vadim Karasev, director of the Kyiv Institute of Global Strategies, warned about this.

Thus, the political scientist commented on the statement of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will launch an offensive in the spring, when the Russian military cedes the initiative at the front.

Karasev added that the country is faced not only with difficulties on the battlefield, but also with an internal political crisis, depletion of resources against the backdrop of meager Western assistance.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will launch an offensive in the spring

On January 31, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, said that the Ukrainian military would launch an attack on Russian fortified areas in the spring.

We make a move, the enemy makes a move. Now it's their turn. They'll finish and then it'll be our turn

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Kirill BudanovHead of the State Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine

Prior to this, Budanov admitted that the Russian Armed Forces are achieving success on the front line, in particular, near Avdeevka. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate noted that since November last year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have gone on the defensive.

At the same time, some Ukrainian experts believe that the Russian military has a significant chance of successful offensive actions. Retired Colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Oleg Starikov said that they will prepare a new large-scale offensive in several directions and could collapse the Ukrainian front.

Retired General Sergei Krivonos emphasized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the necessary resources for an offensive due to the mistakes of the republic’s leadership in the matter of mobilization and the transition of government bodies and enterprises to a special mode of operation.

The State Duma called Budanov’s plans militaristic vampirism

State Duma deputy from Crimea, reserve major general Leonid Ivlev, called Budanov’s plans for the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine militaristic vampirism.

The parliamentarian noted that Kyiv continues to destroy its soldiers on the battlefield, in landings on the right bank of the Dnieper and in Crimea, in a downed plane with Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Now they are planning another attempt this spring. This militaristic vampirism must be stopped, and Russia will do it

Leonid IvlevState Duma deputy, reserve major general

The head of the Zaporizhzhya public movement “We are together with Russia,” Vladimir Rogov, expressed the opinion that the statement of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate is a political game. He suggested that Budanov’s statement was an attempt to remind himself against the backdrop of information about the impending resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

Military expert, associate professor of the department of political analysis and socio-psychological processes of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Oleg Glazunov believes that the new Ukrainian campaign will be limited to only one area, the offensive will not have strategic significance, but will rather play a propaganda role.

At the same time, the specialist doubted that the Ukrainian army would have enough resources to conduct another similar campaign after the failure of the summer hostilities. It will definitely not lead to Ukrainian troops reaching the borders of Russia or entering the territory of Crimea, the expert added.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces had to go on the defensive due to a lack of shells

The Politico newspaper reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had to go on the defensive due to a lack of shells. The military was forced to abandon active offensive operations.

The lack of shells became one of the main reasons for the transition of the Ukrainian army to defensive tactics along the entire front line after the failure of the summer counter-offensive

Politico

On January 19, the Financial Times wrote that Kyiv had decided to change tactics to “active defense” until 2025. This came after a failed summer counter-offensive and amid uncertainty about Western assistance.

As The Washington Post noted, the United States is preparing a new defense strategy for Ukraine, in which the emphasis will be on helping to repel new possible attacks, rather than on trying to take control of the territory.