Trump's long shadow shows the internal division of Republicans in the US Capitol

Groups, conversations, calls. The US Congress was a hive of activity this Wednesday. On the one hand, the Democrats were trying to advance economic assistance to Ukraine. On the other, Republican lawmakers were trying to figure out what steps to take after a perfect storm of parliamentary humiliations on Tuesday: the abandonment of a bill on border control and aid to Ukraine and Israel; the failure of his impeachment attempt in the House of Representatives against the Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas; the defeat of his proposed Israel assistance bill. The chaos has called into question its leaders in both chambers and has made only one thing clear: the enormous influence of its foreseeable presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, in every decision of the party.

The bill on immigration and national security assistance was scheduled to be presented this Wednesday before the full Senate, but both its supporters and detractors recognized that the prospects for this measure, which took four months to reach a consensus, would go ahead were nil. Among the Republican minority in that House, not even their sponsors, the leader of the bench Mitch McConnell and the main negotiator of this party, James Lankford, guaranteed their “yes”.

Democrats now plan to present to a vote this Wednesday the allocation of $118 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific without contributions for control of the border with Mexico, in an attempt to increase pressure on the Republicans.

The rejection of the bill represented a 180-degree turn for Republicans, who since October had demanded a measure that would tighten control of the southern border as a condition for giving the green light to more aid for Ukraine. But in January, before the contents of the bill were even made public, Trump had spoken out against what he described as a “horrible” proposal. The former president wanted to base his campaign on the situation at the border, after records for illegal crossings were broken last year, with 2.4 million detected.

Trump's opposition marked a turning point. Almost immediately, the president of the House of Representatives, fellow Republican Mike Johnson, assured that this bill would “be stillborn” in his institution. Other party legislators were also quick to speak out against it.

“When President Trump arrived and said that he does not want to resolve the border issue, that he wants to make it a campaign issue, House Speaker Johnson obediently changed his speech,” the Democratic majority leader denounced this Tuesday. in the Senate, Chuck Schumer. Biden spoke in a similar vein, accusing his rival in a speech of “preferring to turn this issue into an electoral weapon rather than resolving it” and urged Republicans to show guts and vote in favor of the bill.

But as it has become clear that, barring a major surprise, Trump will be the Republican candidate in the November presidential elections, his influence in Congress and in the party, which seemed to have diminished after the midterm elections, has continued to expand. . And with it, the number of his supporters in the most extremist wing of the political party also grows. Especially in the House of Representatives, where Republicans only hold the majority by a handful of seats, and every vote counts.

The rise of Trump, and Tuesday's fiasco, has given rise to questions about McConnell's future as head of the Republicans in the Senate. The veteran legislator, 81, and the former president are sworn enemies. And McConnell finds himself in the crosshairs of the right wing because of his support for aid to Ukraine and his willingness to work with Democrats on the border bill. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, from the most radical group, has already publicly asked him to resign. Although the Republican leader opposes this, and his fellow religionists cannot stop him, whispers are gaining strength in the halls of the Capitol about the extent to which he is in a position to maintain the discipline of his group. Or what will happen if Trump regains the presidency in November.

The doubts also extend to the House of Representatives. In one of his greatest litmus tests in his first hundred days as president of the institution, Johnson saw two of his most ambitious projects collapse on Tuesday in a matter of just ten minutes.

The impeachment trial against Mayorkas, which the hard wing of the party has been promising to its electorate throughout Biden's mandate, was defeated by the votes of three Republican deputies, who aligned themselves with the Democrats by considering that it should not be used in a mere dispute. political what the Constitution provides as a last resort for very serious crimes. Immediately afterwards, the proposal for more than $17 billion in aid to Israel fell far short of the two-thirds majority it needed to move forward.

In part, the Republican misstep in the Mayorkas case was due to failures in calculating the necessary votes. Several legislators from this party are sick and could not go to vote. Yes, a recently operated Democratic deputy did, by surprise, whose presence Johnson and his team did not count on.

“What happened was a mess, but we are fixing it,” Johnson acknowledged in statements to the press this Wednesday, in which he insisted that he will put the impeachment Mayorkas again in the future. “We live in a time of divided government. We have a minimal majority and every vote counts,” he added.

Other Republican legislators recognized the complex situation of their party, divided in internal fights between the most Trumpist faction and the most moderate and struggling to maintain its small majority. “We talk about governing as a majority and we can't even approve a measure, that says a lot about where we are as a group. I want to think that we can get through this moment and recognize that things can get much worse for us if we become a minority again” in the November elections, noted Congressman Steve Womack of Arkansas.

But it doesn't look like the infighting – and Trump's influence – will stop anytime soon. Johnson faces two imminent tests against the most extremist wing of his party. On the one hand, two congresswomen close to Trump, Elise Stefanik and Matt Gaetz, have presented a draft resolution that would declare that the former president “did not participate in an insurrection or rebellion against the United States.” An attempt to protect the candidate against lawsuits demanding his withdrawal from the campaign for his alleged role in the assault by his supporters on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. On the other hand, the deadline to discuss a new extension of the ceiling is approaching. of debt and prevent the Administration from running out of funds for its operation. The hardline already reproached him in January for reaching an initial agreement with the Democrats, and will carefully examine what he is going to do on this occasion.

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