Throughout the last year the Spanish industry had managed to escape the paralysis that grieves its European partners, but the commercial war reopened by Trump in its second term has ended that trend. This follows from the last report of the … PMI manufacturing today published by the Global S&P analysis firm, which points to a contraction of the sector activity for the first time since January 2024.
The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is an indicator that measures the health of companies through surveys in which they are asked about employment, prices, orders, sales, etc. and that it has the virtue of advancing to official indicators (inflation or GDP) and allows us to notice background currents in the economy.
Tied for the fall of the new orders, a circumstance that was not given since last July, and the stagnation of production, in the second month of the year the indicator stood in the 49.7 points, Below the threshold indicating a drop in activity (50 points).
“The situation of orders is particularly worrying since geopolitical uncertainties are overshadowing commercial activity, leading to cancellation or postponement of investments in the industrial sector and a reduction in productive activity,” says the Global S&P report.
The fact indicates something that in any case already knew that our country will not escape for the pernicious effects of the tariffs that it has already imposed and that the new US administration will impose on Europe. It is true that the direct exhibition of Spain is less than that of other community partners, because only around the 5% of our exports They go to that country, but two thirds go to the EU, a situation that creates indirect vulnerabilities. In addition, this problem arising adds to the economic stagnation of Europe (in 2024 the Eurozone closed with a GDP growth of just 0.7%, according to the latest Eurostat data), a situation that has caused that for the first time in a year the new export orders are reduced.
The Spanish industry is already preparing for a moderation of demand and thus warns in the other indicators that measure the Global S&P surveys, which point to a reduction in the purchase of “unnecessary inventory” and a “postponement of investments.”
This context has also made a dent in employment, which breaks with five months of increases in the industry. According to the specialists of the analysis firm, because “In general, companies did not replace staff that left their plants”. The positive note is that S&P global does not foresee massive dismissals in Spain because despite the challenges most of the businessmen surveyed foresee an improvement in demand throughout the year.
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