Europe already shows a open disunity in the face of Ukraine’s eventual defeat in the war against Russia and great impotence to pressure Israel to sign a ceasefire in the Middle East. The imminent arrival of Donald Trump to the White Househis ascendancy over the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who could accept a truce in Lebanonand its closeness to the Russian leader, Vladimir Putinwhich sees its victory in Ukraine getting closer every day, show the waning geopolitical weight of Europe and its profound mistakes in both crises.
Without having been sworn in, Trump is already disruptingas he did in 2017 when inaugurating his first presidency of the United States, the strategic panorama in Europe and the Middle Eastwhere wars have put international security to a minimum. Despite Brussels’ efforts to influence Israel to end its invasions of Gaza and Lebanon, or Moscow to halt its advances on Ukraine, it will be the United States that dictates the rules.
If Joe Biden’s years in power have seen how, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, a West led by Europeans and North Americans came together around NATO and a visceral rejection of Russia, along with an economic alignment against China and a nuanced commitment to Israel, Trump’s arrival disrupts this system of relations and reduces the capacity for European influence.
Upon winning the presidential election on November 5, Trump reiterated that His intention is to end the war in Ukraine, with the consequent commotion in Brussels. The EU wants to compensate for the eventual withdrawal of US funds destined for kyiv, but cannot do so without risking the European welfare system.
All this at a time when this war is being won by Russia, superior in weapons, men and, above all, in military initiative. The Brussels Falconsled by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenthey cry out to support the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyin the face of the Russian attack. But without the United States, such a bet will come to nothing.
Faded EU support for Ukraine
Supporting Ukraine means cross more red lines in military support and bring closer the direct clash with Russia, which has already threatened to use nuclear weapons against any country that supports attacks against its territory.
The direction the war is taking, with kyiv’s inability to overcome the conflict and recover the invaded territory, shows in all its crudeness the European confusion. Voices are growing, even in Ukraine itself, to negotiate a ceasefire and from Trump’s circle and the US Congress itself the impossibility of sustaining a conflict for much longer is seen that detracts attention from the true American geopolitical interests in the Asia-Pacific.
However, In Brussels you only hear the proclamations of taking the war to its ultimate consequences and supporting kyiv with weapons that European arsenals do not have and money that the community coffers do not have.
European tanks and planes, claimed by Zelensky as keys to victory, are not showing such effectiveness before the forces of Moscow, which last week also pulled out a hypersonic super missile that, loaded with nuclear warheads from 3,000 kilometers away, can circumvent the anti-aircraft systems provided by the West.
Gaps in pro-Ukrainian unity
In this breeding ground, disunity thrives. The most radical positions in favor of negotiation with Russia by countries such as Slovakia or Hungary are now joined Romania. In the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, held this Sunday, Calin Georgescu wona pro-Russian ultranationalist and populist, highly critical of the EU and NATO.
In the second round, on December 8, Georgescu will run alongside the right-wing Elena Lasconi. The current prime minister, Marcel Ciolacupro-European, social democrat and favorite in the polls, came third and out of that second round.
In Romania, it no longer sells the message from Brussels that demands putting European economic potential at the service of a war that is increasingly foreign and whose cause is rejected outside the Western sphere, especially among the emerging countries of the so-called Global South.
A troubled river…
In the face of so much hubbub, the Kremlin rubs its hands. This Monday, the Russian foreign spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, recalled that Putin is willing to talk about Ukraine. Of course, without giving up his conquests. According to Peskov, Trump has indeed spoken of peace with Putin, unlike Biden.
This position is close to that raised this Sunday by Mike Waltzfuture National Security Advisor under Trump. Waltz reiterated that the president-elect is “very concerned” about the war in Ukraine and stressed that the war must have “a responsible end.”
Other politicians in the circle Trump has already announced that this “responsible end” involves the Ukrainian transfer of territory to Russia in exchange for peacea possibility rejected by Zelensky, but which is beginning to be evaluated even by the Ukrainian population.
A poll conducted by the Gallup group shows that 52% of Ukrainians support a negotiated peace. In 2023, that percentage was 27%. There is even a notable spectrum of Ukrainian citizens willing to make territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace. 32%, according to the kyiv Institute of Sociology.
Zelensky’s peace plan (later called Victory Plan), which rejects any transfer of sovereignty and demands entry into NATO (a step that would be considered by Moscow as a declaration of war by the Alliance), reached its maximum popular support with the Ukrainian invasion of a sector of the Russian Kursk region.
The current Russian counteroffensive aims to The Kremlin’s intention is to recover the entire Kursk area before Trump is sworn into take away kyiv’s best cards before a possible negotiating table.
The Kremlin’s intention is to recover the entire Kursk area before Trump is sworn in
Zelensky himself, much less optimistic than a few months ago about the course the war is taking, said last week that he wanted to “listen to suggestions” from Trump. “I think we will see them in January and we will have a plan to end this war,” said the Ukrainian leader.in a more realistic message than those launched by its European allies.
Israel before the arrival of Trump
He is also Trump’s shadow, and not the weakness shown by Biden towards Netanyahu since Israel invaded Gaza and Lebanonwhich plans on the possibility of the Jewish leader accepting a truce with the Hezbollah militias to stop the war in the neighboring country.
This Tuesday the Israeli Security Cabinet could meet to approve a ceasefire with Hezbollah and stop the war launched by Israel against these Shia militias that culminated in the invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1 and the continued attack on Beirut.
in this war More than 3,000 Lebanese have died since Israel began bombing southern Lebanon in mid-September and in the invasion itself.
So far, Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s demands to end this conflict and also the genocide in Gaza
Until now, Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s demands to end this conflict and also the genocide in Gaza, where more than 44,000 Palestinians have been murdered by the Israeli army since on October 7, 2023, Hamas militias massacred 1,200 people in Israeli territory and kidnapped another 250.
Trump’s victory accelerated US mediation to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon and also pressured Netanyahu to accept an agreement. It is Biden’s last chance to not leave the White House without a single diplomatic success abroad and in this case he has the support of the Republican leader.
Trump’s influence on Netanyahu
Trump’s support for the Israeli prime minister, wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes, is evident. But, although The new tenant of the White House cares little about the Gaza massacre, he is not a supporter of the Lebanon campaignbecause at any moment it could drag the United States into a war against Iran, an unconditional ally of Hezbollah. And Trump is not for more wars.
That’s why, He has already shown himself in favor of the ceasefire proposal formulated by the American envoy Amos Hochsteinmediator between Israel and Lebanon.
Brussels will lose even more prominence in the Middle East, unable to raise its voice to Trump, as it did not do with Biden
If an agreement is not reached now, and it would not be strange, given Netanyahu’s record of sabotage of negotiations with Hezbollah itself and Hamas Palestinians in Gazathen the Israeli prime minister will have to face the foreseeable fait accompli policy that Trump applies when he comes to power. And the unpredictability of the new American president could be very dangerous in the current state of affairs in the region.
Meanwhile, the EU attends these negotiations as a stone guest, with no other power than that of criticism. The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, showed in Beirut this Sunday his doubts about the acceptance of the ceasefire and ruled out that Netanyahu is going to make that concession to Biden.
Borrellwho is in his final days in office before being replaced on December 1 by the Estonian Kaja Kallas, has been the European discordant voice before Israela country he has repeatedly denounced for its actions against international law in Gaza and Lebanon.
His successor does not appear to be continuing that critical role.with which Brussels will lose more prominence in the Middle East if possibleunable to raise his voice at Trump, as he did not do with Biden.
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