The election campaign in the USA remains exciting. According to a recent poll, Donald Trump is catching up a little. The US election is heading towards a neck-and-neck race.
Washington, DC – The campaign for the presidential election on November 5, 2024 is gaining in tension. Since Biden’s withdrawal, the Democrats’ poll numbers have improvedbut presidential candidate Kamala Harris now faces new challenges.
In a recent survey by ActiVoteconducted from August 25 to September 2, Harris is at 50.8 percent, while Donald Trump is catching up with 49.2 percent. The small difference of 1.6 percentage points is within the statistical margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. This could indicate a close race. Compared to the previous poll from August 15 to 23, Harris has lost a little support.
| name | Survey from 03.09 | Survey from 24.08 |
| Kamala Harris | 50.8% | 52.6% |
| Donald Trump | 49.2% | 47.4% |
Victor Allis, pollster at ActiVotetold Newsweek: “Harris’s poll numbers initially improved for three to four weeks after Biden’s withdrawal before reaching a period where she had a five percent lead. But in the last five days, that lead has shrunk to just under two percent.”
Polls on the US election: Trump is ahead for the first time since August, according to forecasts
In addition, forecasts by data analyst Nate Silver show an advantage for Trump. For the first time since early August, Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in the Electoral College calculations. Silver estimates Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College at 52.4 percent.
However, there are two points to note: First, Nate Silver’s forecasting model no longer takes into account ActiVote polls because the company’s methods do not meet scientific standards. Second, FiveThirtyEight’s model currently estimates Harris’ chances of winning the election at 56 percent. The Economist’s current figures (as of September 4) show both candidates at 50 percent each.
Things are getting exciting in the US election campaign
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US election: Trump attacks rival Harris
After Harris was nominated as the Democratic candidate, Trump initially suffered major setbacks and was at times well behind Harris. In recent weeks, however, Trump has stepped up his campaign strategy and is increasingly relying on offensive attacks on Harris, despite some harsh criticism from within his own party. (jala)
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