Trump is a favorite in the Iowa caucuses, in which Nikki Haley makes her way as an alternative

Is Donald Trump the inevitable candidate? That is the question that resonates in the United States Republican Party when the elections begin. caucus of Iowa, which are celebrated on a national holiday, in honor of Martin Luther King. In Iowa, the cold has kept people indoors most of the day. The heavy snowfall last week still partly covers the election posters. Tens of thousands of citizens are preparing to brave temperatures below 20 degrees below zero this Monday to go to hundreds of schools, sports centers, community centers, churches and other venues to elect their favorite candidate. Trump's victory is taken for granted. It remains to be seen by how much margin and who comes second, Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

Trump leads the polls by a wide margin in the country as a whole, but former UN ambassador and former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, believes that the battle for the nomination is not decided. After competing in Iowa, a conservative and religious state that does not particularly favor her, Haley has her sights set on New Hampshire, where the primaries are held next Tuesday, and her prospects are good. She wants to consolidate herself there and for the Republican primaries to be perceived as a matter of two: Trump and her. Even so, the former president's advantage among the Republican base seems almost insurmountable.

Not only among the bases. Trump has been gathering support among Republican Party congressmen and, whether out of fear or conviction, this weekend he already had more than half of all Republican senators and representatives. One of those who have allowed him to overcome the bar has been Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Trump's rival critic in the 2016 primaries and now dedicated to his cause. He has preferred him over the governor of his State, Ron DeSantis, which must have hurt the latter.

Haley has her upward trajectory as an asset. While DeSantis has been sinking in the polls, she has continued to improve. She favors the calendar. The next battle is in New Hampshire, a small state, but more urban, moderate and educated than Iowa. The governor, the popular Chris Sununu, facing Trump, has offered him his full support. Haley has also found the gift of the retirement of Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who aroused sympathy in New Hampshire. Since he was the only openly anti-Trump candidate, Haley aims to capture a good part of her voters.

Leave negativity behind

This Monday, the candidates rushed until the last minute to campaign and have concentrated their last efforts around Des Moines, the capital and most populated city in the State. Haley has insisted in her latest campaign messages on presenting herself as a “new generational leader who leaves negativity and baggage behind and focuses on the solutions of the future,” an alternative to the “chaos” that haunts Trump. “We cannot defeat Democratic chaos with Republican chaos,” she insists again and again.

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The day has also come with a bombardment of advertising on local television, mainly with negative ads from Haley against DeSantis and vice versa. Once again, Trump wins this battle between his two persecutors.

The former president has spent most of the day talking on the phone with his captains of caucus, a kind of delegates in the different meetings that are held this afternoon to vote. Unlike how they were until now caucus Democrats (with voting by show of hands, formation of groups and elimination of the candidates with the least support), in the Republicans they vote with ballots and the vote is secret.

Trump has also been active this Monday attacking his rivals from his social network, Truth. In it he has once again used her insulting nickname against Haley, “knucklehead,” and called her a “globalist.” He has criticized Fox News for airing a poll showing Haley trailing her in voting intentions in New Hampshire. Although he has also unleashed some abuse on DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, his continued attacks on the only female candidate show that he is the one he fears most at the moment.

After New Hampshire, the next stops in the Republican primaries are in Nevada and South Carolina, where DeSantis also does not have high expectations. In both, Trump's advantage is very clear, but South Carolina is Haley's home state, where she was governor, and she can play the local card there.

Whatever happens in these first rounds, Trump remains the clear favorite, according to the polls, but the possibilities of a real alternative depend on a victory or a narrow defeat for Haley in New Hampshire, where snow is also expected. and cold next week. In Iowa, bad weather has taken some of its toll on the US economy. caucusa political and tourist attraction that acts as a source of income for the State every four years.

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