Press
In November, it will probably be Biden versus Trump again in the USA. In current polls, the decisive states are all opting for the former president.
Frankfurt – Trump is ahead: The former US President Donald Trump would incumbent Joe Biden likely to defeat him in six crucial battleground states if the 2024 elections were held now, according to poll data released on Friday (May 25, 2024).
US election 2024: Biden defeated Trump in contested US states in 2020
Although neither the republicannor the Democratic Party has officially chosen its presidential candidate, but a duel between Biden and Trump is considered almost certain. In the 2020 election, when Biden triumphed against Trump, the Democrat managed to defeat his opponent in the contested states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, won in North Carolina.
The so-called “swing states” are the real battlefields of the US election campaign. Unlike in the traditional strongholds of the parties – such as the states of California for the Democrats or Alabama for the Republicans – here you can find a balanced distribution of party supporters and a particularly large number of undecided voters. This means that the candidate, the program and the election campaign can and must actively convince people.
New polls from the Cook Political Report, GS Strategy Group (a Republican polling firm) and BSG (a Democratic polling firm) suggest that the 2020 results could now nearly be reversed in the upcoming election.
The “swing states” are swinging in the election campaign: Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia
The Opinion poll The Cook Political Report poll included 3,969 voters in the seven states and was conducted from May 6 to May 13. When third-party candidates are included, the results in Arizona show Trump ahead: He is at 41 percent, compared to 37 percent for Biden. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump is at 45 percent, Biden at 44 percent. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes.
In Georgia, Trump leads Biden by four points, 42 percent to 38 percent. Without the independents, Trump is ahead by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent. There, too, the last election was extremely close: Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes.
Presidential election 2024: Things are also looking good for Trump in Michigan and Nevada
Trump is also ahead in Michigan. Here he is three points ahead of Biden (43:40), and in a direct comparison it is two percentage points ahead (47:45). Trump won Michigan in 2016, but Biden won the state in 2020 by more than 150,000 votes.
In Nevada, the Democrats have won every presidential election since 2008, and Trump is currently ahead there too (43:35 percent, without third-party candidates 49:40 percent). Trump is also doing well in North Carolina at the moment (44:36 percent, without third-party candidates 48:41). In 2020, Trump won there with 49.9 to 38.6 percent. Biden won there with 50.1 percent to Trump’s 47.7.
US election campaign entering its hot phase: Biden and Trump are exactly tied in Wisconsin
In North Carolina, Trump leads independent candidates by eight points. Biden has the support of 36 percent of voters, while Trump has the support of 44 percent. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump leads by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Trump is also ahead, with 43 percent to Biden’s 40 percent (48:45 without third-party candidates). Biden was ahead of his opponent there in 2020, namely 50:48.8. In Wisconsin After all, the two are exactly tied (41 percent, 45 without third-party candidates). Trump won there in 2016, and Biden won in 2020 (49.5:48.8).
Between court and stage: Trump continues campaigning despite massive legal allegations
The poll numbers look bad for Biden, but his campaign team and supporters warn that things will change by election day. Biden and Trump will will probably hold its first televised debate on 27 June hold.
Meanwhile, the New York trial against Trump for covering up a hush money payment is entering its final phase. In the first criminal trial in history against a former US president, Trump is accused of using falsified business documents to cover up hush money paid to former porn actress Stormy Daniels and thus illegally interfering in the presidential election. After the verdict, the ex-president will face at least three major charges at the state and federal level – for allegedly attempting to stay in office after his election defeat in 2020 and illegally withholding highly confidential government documents. (cgsc with dpa)
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