“With the four years of Trump we had a great international policy, “There were no wars, unemployment or inflation and we were self-sufficient in oil.” The Argentine dentist Ecio Pozzi is 47 years old and emigrated to the United States in July 2001. Today he lives in New Jersey, is a US citizen and says that in November he will vote for Donald Trump: “Latinos like me, who came legally and never lived off State, they do not want what happens in our countries to happen here. And we see in Biden and the Democrats what happened to us there.”
Ecio voted for Barack Obama twice and then, in 2016, supported Trump for the first time. Like the most radical followers of the former president, he is convinced that Joe Biden won by fraud in 2020—despite the fact that there was never any evidence. And he also repeats another of Trumpism's conspiracy theories: that the current government opens the doors to immigrants to gain votes: “They are giving them stay in Manhattan hotels and this month they started giving them a credit card with 1“$,000 per month for expenses.”
Colombian Daniela Rey is 37 years old and has lived in California for 15 years. She works as a “herbalist and entrepreneur” and in November, unlike Ecio, she will vote for the Democratic candidate: “Trump is crazy. The four years he was president were a complete joke. “Biden is old and perhaps not the best option, but he is a serious man who handled the financial crisis of recent years well.”
For her, the economy has been the great achievement of the current president, who will seek re-election. “We haven't worried much about what he does for three years andthe government, thanks to the fact that we have someone more reliable and serious as president. And there is the fact that Trump does nothing but talk about Russia… obviously they are allies,” he adds.
Daniela. He thus joins the chorus of those who denounce an alleged collusion of the former president with Putin, the great enemy not only of Biden but of the United States.
Ecio and Daniela are part of the 36.2 million Latin Americans in a position to go to the polls in the November presidential elections, in which they will face off—once again—Biden and Trump, who this week cleared the way for their candidacies after sweep the respective primaries on the so-called Super Tuesday.
According to data from Voto Latino, an organization dedicated to promoting community participation in civic life in the United States, the number of Latino voters in 2024 represents an increase of 6.5% compared to 2020 and is 20.5%. more than those who could vote in 2016, when Trump won. In the elections on November 5, more than one in 10 voters (14%) will be Latino.
Americans of Latino origin represent the first minority, behind the white majority and above African Americans. However, they participated less in 2020: 51% voted, in contrast to African-American voters, with 63%, and whites, with 74%.
Dennis González, vice president of Strategic Initiatives at Voto Latino, informed Connectas that for these elections 4.1 million new Latino voters are able to go to the polls. And he highlighted that “they are very young or old, and in battleground states,” like Florida and Arizona.
It's the economy, stupid
For the first time in almost 250 years of history, Latino immigrants could be key when it comes to electing the next president. And his traditional sympathy for Democratic candidates is not guaranteed in 2024.
For the first time in almost 250 years of history, Latino immigrants could be key when it comes to electing the next president. And their traditional sympathy for Democratic candidates is not guaranteed in 2024. According to the Annual Hispanic Public Opinion Survey, many are beginning to choose not to affiliate with any party, which would harm Democrats. And furthermore, in the last four years the support ofLatinos voting for Biden went from 67% in 2020 to 53% today. Meanwhile, Trump has grown in this segment from 29% to 33%.
For this reason, the Republican electoral command wants to fish in other people's waters, both among Afro and Latino voters. The controversial guru of Trumpism, Steve Bannon, recognized this in his speech during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the summit of the global right that took place this year in Washington. There, Trump shared the billboard with two Latin American “stars”: the presidents of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, and of Argentina, Javier Milei.
“We are seeing surveys that say that Latinos are not satisfied with Biden's policies, and it is a great opportunity to gain their trust,” declared Mercedes Schlapp, organizer of the CPAC, to explain the invitation to the two Hispanic leaders to an event. electoral in the United States, an unprecedented event.
A week later Trump, who had effusively hugged the Argentine at CPAC, publicly praised him again: “I love Milei because he loves me,” he exclaimed. And recalling his famous phrase “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), he added: “MAGA is the largest movement in the world, even Argentina is MAGA.”
Illegal immigration worries Americans today more than any other issue, according to a recent Gallup poll. However, Latinos are more concerned about the behavior of the economy, according to another survey.
Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue political forum, however, minimizes the influence that Milei may have on the Republican campaign. “The Argentine population in the United States has no electoral political weight,” he says. And he said something similar about Bukele: “The Salvadoran population is significant, but it is concentrated in three places: Washington DC, Los Angeles and New York. And those three areas are Democratic, so Biden has a very strong advantage. It is almost impossible for Trump wins in those places.”
Illegal immigration worries Americans today more than any other issue, according to a recent Gallup poll. However, Latinos are more concerned about the behavior of the economy, according to another survey. It is, paradoxically, one of the achievements of the Biden administration, but its benefits seem to have not reached migrants who are in the lowest social strata, with poorly paid jobs, without access to housing and very affected by the rise. Of the prices.
“Although inflation has decreased, prices in the family basket are still rising and that is something that Americans experience daily,” analyzes Robert Valencia, #CONNECTASHub journalist of Colombian origin specialized in international public affairs and resident in the United States. Joined. And to explain the change in trend of the Latino vote against Biden, he adds: “Although the numbers at a macroeconomic level may register one thing, another is the feeling of the ordinary citizen who finds that his basic products continue to rise. That is perhaps what has affected Joe Biden and increased Donald Trump's favoritism.”
In short, as Valencia says, “the economy has always been the main factor in a presidential election. That was exactly what happened to Trump in 2020, that due to the pandemic there was a problem in the economy and Biden was the winner.”
On Saturday, March 2, a new poll on voting intention was published, which confirms Trump's favoritism to return to the presidency. In it, the Republican obtains 48% of the preferences, against 43% for Biden (with 10% undecided). A possible explanation for the poor prognosis for the latter's re-election: the majority of respondents consider that the economy is not doing well.
A heterogeneous vote
Although a Cuban, Nicaraguan or Venezuelan voter can vote Republican in South Florida, there are voters in other parts of the United States—Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans in California, in New York, in Illinois—who can vote Democratic.
Both Shifter and Valencia recognize that the vote of Latino origin (where both immigrants and their first and second generation children enter) is increasingly relevant in the northern country due to its growing demographic weight. A projection from the United States Census Bureau indicates that by 2060, 1 in 4 Americans will be of Latino origin.
However, it must be clarified that Latinos cannot be treated as a monolithic group. Because, as in any other population segment, there are marked ideological differences between them. Ecio and Daniela demonstrate it clearly.
“While a Cuban, Nicaraguan or Venezuelan voter can vote Republican in South Florida, there are voters in other parts of the United States—Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans in California, in New York, in Illinois—who can vote Democratic,” he adds. Valencia. And she completes with a specific case: “In southern Texas there is a sector, the so-called Valle Grande, where there is a large Mexican population that in 2020 was clearly Democratic, but preferred to vote for Donald Trump. “This speaks to the fact that Hispanics do not necessarily have absolute loyalty to a party.”
Dennis González recognizes that historically “Latino voters have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates,” but that “each election is determined in part by the undecided.” As an example, he cited the last legislative elections in 2022, where Latinos over 40 years of age supported the Democratic candidates for the Senate by 60%, a figure that rose to 67% among those under 40 years of age.
However, while Hispanic participation over 40 years olds stood at 46% (close to the general average), that of those under 40 years of age was only 24%.
But no one doubts the importance of the Latino vote in the next elections. The most recent report from the Naleo educational fund predicts a 6.5% increase in participation figures compared to 2020, well above the non-Hispanic vote, which would grow only 1.5%. “We project that Latino voter participation in 2024 will be consistent with long-term growth, with the trend that at least the majority of those of voting age will do so in the presidential elections in November,” says the published document. in February.
The campaign commands are beginning to look with more open eyes at this community of almost 40 million citizens. At the center is the other issue that most worries Americans: illegal immigration, but with radically different attitudes.
That is why the campaign commands are beginning to look with more open eyes at this community of almost 40 million citizens. At the center is the other issue that most concerns the United Statess: illegal immigration, but with radically different attitudes.
On the one hand, Biden embraces in his speech the hundreds of thousands of desperate people who arrive at the border with Mexico, although without giving them shelter or managing to contain them in their countries of origin. For his part, Trump does not miss the opportunity to insult them and accuse them of all the evils of humanity, while he embraces Milei and Bukele, presidents of countries where some of these migrants come from.
In this context in which the country's economy seems to be doing well despite the inflation that affects people's daily lives, and in the midst of a harsh debate over the unstoppable illegal immigration, Latinos in the United States will play a key role in electing the next president. And although only 17.5 million of them are expected to vote, in the country's intricate electoral system they can at any moment tip the balance in states like Florida, where Trump is once again the favorite. And if that were confirmed, the Republican could rephrase his phrase: “Make Latin America Great Again.”
AUTHOR: LEONARDO OLIVA
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