He establishment US foreign policy is preparing for one of the biggest shakeups in years, as Donald Trump has promised to revamp US foreign policy and end the so-called “deep state” (a constant reference at Trump rallies to refer to a network of government officials who would have de facto power), which could lead to the dismissal of thousands of government officials, including those who are part of the US diplomatic corps.
Trump’s victory is likely to push the Biden administration to accelerate efforts to support Ukraine before the Republican’s arrival cuts off military aid or hampers already modest efforts to stop Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza and Lebanon. A second Trump term could involve cutting or eliminating major parts of the US bureaucracy, including the State Department, equivalent to foreign ministries in other countries.
Trump supporters have said the Republican will be more organized during his second term, often dubbed “Trump 2.0.” The day after the election, American media reported that Trump had already chosen Brian Hook, a warmongering State Department official during his first term, to lead the transition phase of American diplomats.
Analysts, current and former US diplomats and foreign officials say that when Trump arrives at the White House in January it will be difficult to distinguish which election promises were bluffs and which were real plans. What is clear is that one of his priorities is to end many of the policies promoted by his predecessor.
“I’m skeptical that the transition process will have much of an impact, as the new team’s natural instinct will be to throw Biden’s entire foreign policy in the trash,” says a former senior diplomat. “If you go back to Trump’s victory in 2016, the truth is that despite his electoral promises, Mexico did not have to pay for the wall. And, you know, it doesn’t seem like there was a secret plan to defeat the Islamic State,” says Richard Fontaine, director general of the think tank Center for a New American Security. “Some of these electoral promises were not fulfilled and now we do not know what the president’s proposal will be… and what he will do.”
However, a clear Trump priority appears to be targeting officials who shape US foreign policy as part of a broader purge of the US government.
Trump has promised to reactivate Schedule F, a plan that aims to increase the president’s control over federal employees, many of whom could become political appointees. This measure could affect tens of thousands of career public employees and would give Trump broad power to fire “dishonest bureaucrats,” as he called them in statements during the campaign.
Within the State Department there is concern that Trump could target offices that focus specifically on issues he has attacked during the presidential campaign, such as immigration. Specifically, it could cut entire State Department offices, including the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration (PRM, which resettled 125,000 refugees to the United States in 2022 alone), as well as the office of democracy, human rights and labor, which has focused on Israel’s violation of Palestinian rights.
An ultraconservative agenda
Project 2025, a policy memo published by the conservative Heritage Foundation, suggested that Trump would simply reallocate the PRM to allocate resources to “the challenges arising from the current immigration situation until this crisis can be brought under control,” and said which would require “indefinitely reducing the number of USRAP refugee admissions [Programa de Admisión de Refugiados de Estados Unidos]”.
But the blueprint, authored by Kiron Skinner, former director of policy planning at the State Department during Trump’s first term, went further, suggesting that Trump could simply freeze the agency’s work for a complete reassessment of his previous policy. .
“Prior to the inauguration, the transition team in the president-elect’s department should evaluate every aspect of the State Department’s funding negotiations and commitments,” one section of the draft stated. Skinner wrote that upon taking office, the Secretary of State should “order the immediate freezing of all efforts to implement unratified international treaties and agreements, the allocation of resources, foreign aid disbursements, contracts and payments.” national and international, hiring and recruitment decisions, etc., pending review by a political official.
“Everyone is preparing,” says a diplomat posted abroad: “Some [diplomáticos] They may choose to leave even before Trump arrives.”
Trump has also promised to “overhaul federal departments and agencies and fire all corrupt officials in our national security and intelligence apparatus.”
As Democrat Joe Biden enters his final stage as president, the Administration will focus on trying to move forward with the $6 billion in aid already approved for Ukraine, as well as exerting whatever influence he has left in his Administration to find an unlikely solution. the fire in Gaza. At the same time, they will have to calm the nervousness of the international community, which wonders what Trump has planned for his second term.
“I think the outgoing administration is going to do everything it can to make the case that the United States needs to continue helping Ukraine, and will have to spend a lot of time, I’m sure, dealing with nervous Ukrainians and nervous Europeans,” Fontaine says. At the next G20 summit in Rio, which takes place on November 18 and 19, Biden’s team “will try to assure the rest of the world that many of the things it has done over the last four years will continue into the future and “They are not going to be struck down.” He concludes: “We will see how they react.”
Translation by Emma Reverter
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