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Trust in the traffic light coalition seems to have been severely damaged. A survey shows that many citizens do not expect any improvement in cooperation.
Berlin – “We are creating stability in times of unrest.” This is how Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) described the Agreement in the traffic light dispute over the 2025 federal budgetAt the federal press conference on July 5, the Chancellor seemed extremely satisfied with the result, which he had discussed together with Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP). But despite the agreement, the traffic light coalition is still lagging behind in the polls.
Polls for traffic light coalition stagnate – parties in slump despite budget agreement
The ZDF-Politbarometer looks anything but good for the traffic light parties despite the agreement on the federal budget. Overall, the coalition parties will only get 31 percent if the federal election is next Sunday. The SPD, with 14 percent, is just ahead of the Greens (13 percent). Neither could improve their result compared to the previous month – but neither could worsen it.
With just four percent, the FDP would still have to fear for its place in the Bundestag. For comparison: In the 2021 federal election, the SPD received 25.7 percent, the Greens 14.8 and the FDP 11.5. This means that the federal government could have lost more than 20 percent of the vote during the legislative period.
CDU on the rise in poll – AfD remains in second place
The clear winner is the CDU, which, according to ZDF 32 percent of respondents would vote for them. The Union Party was even able to improve its result by one percentage point compared to the previous month. If the result turns out to be true, the CDU could again provide the chancellor in the 2025 federal election. It is followed by the AfDwhich, despite massive controversy in recent months, continues to rank second in the polls with 17 percent.
This is how Germany would vote if there were a general election next Sunday
CDU | 32 percent |
SPD | 14 percent |
Green | 13 percent |
FDP | 4 percent |
AfD | 17 percent |
left | 3 percent |
BSW | 7 percent |
Other | 10 percent |
Source: ZDF
The bottom places are shared by the newly founded alliance Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) and the Left. The BSW could achieve seven percent from scratch and thus enter the Bundestag. This would force the ex-Left Wagenknecht to push her old party out of the upper house. The Left are only at three percent in the survey and would therefore not clear the 5 percent hurdle.
Merz criticizes federal budget 2025 – “enough for a truce”
Even after the agreement on the budget, dissatisfaction with the traffic light coalition appears to remain high. For CDU leader Friedrich Merz, this is mainly due to the ongoing dispute that has characterized the coalition’s time in government. “When we return from the parliamentary summer recess in September, the dispute in the coalition over the 2025 budget will really begin,” Merz predicted in a speech. “All of this is enough for an exhausted coalition to maintain a truce for a few days. Nothing more.”
According to the ZDFAccording to the Politbarometer, many people in Germany are of the same opinion as Merz. Despite the budget agreement, 79 percent do not expect any improvement in cooperation within the traffic light coalition. Ten percent would even fear a deterioration.
Survey shows: Germans do not believe in economic growth in Germany
People in Germany seem to be worried not only about the federal government, but also about the German economy. According to ZDF said they believe that the German economy is going downhill. Only seven percent believe that there will be an economic upturn. 33 percent believe that things will stay the same.
Although economic experts do not believe that the economy will shrink, the forecasts for 2024 do not look good. The head of economic research at Ifo, Timo Wollmershäuser, also does not believe in strong economic growth in 2024. “Growth rates of three percent or more are unlikely to be expected in the future,” he told the Business Week.
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