TDespite enormous dissatisfaction with the federal government, only a minority of German leaders want early federal elections. In terms of reputation, however, Chancellor Scholz (SPD) is only just ahead of his possible CDU challenger Merz.
This is shown by the new elite panel, for which the Allensbach pollsters commissioned by FAZ and “Capital” once again surveyed 485 of the highest-ranking women and men from business, politics and administration. 47 percent of these decision-makers already consider CDU chairman Friedrich Merz to be the more suitable chancellor, while 49 percent say no.
A large majority of the panel is concerned about the strengthening of the AfD. Almost 80 percent now see this as a serious danger for Germany, two thirds also see it as a risk for the business location. 69 percent of decision-makers also describe anti-Semitism in Germany as a major problem. After the terrorist militia Hamas attacked Israel in October, hostilities against Jews increased sharply. 84 percent of those surveyed see the immigration of Muslims as one reason for this.
However, the majority of the panel does not believe in better management of migration. She takes a hard line against the refugee policy of the traffic light coalition. While in July almost half of the decision-makers thought the refugee policy was right, 65 percent now reject it.
Three out of four respondents see the high level of immigration as a threat to social peace. Only 16 percent believe that the measures that the federal and state governments recently agreed on – including faster asylum procedures and the transition to benefits in kind – are sufficient to reduce the number of refugees.
A clear majority of the panel considers the discussed outsourcing of asylum procedures to Africa, for example, to be unrealistic. Business and politics have different opinions as to whether high social benefits are an important reason for immigration. While managers and entrepreneurs say yes, politicians are divided. Accordingly, business is calling for benefits for asylum seekers to be cut; the majority of politicians do not expect this to have any effect.
Politics and economics often intersect
The country's most important decision-makers blame the traffic light policy for the German economic weakness, right after the high energy prices. Only one in ten agrees with the work of the SPD, Greens and FDP. The confidence of decision-makers in the ability of a federal government to act has never been lower in the last ten years than it is now.
“There is a complete loss of trust in the government, but there is a lack of confidence that a change will bring real change,” says Allensbach boss Renate Töpfer, assessing the result. The Union needs a clear government program that is not satisfied with abstract declarations of intent, but rather specifically states what it wants to do better.
In the survey completed at the end of December, it is particularly clear this time that the political and economic elites are drifting apart. Their assessment of important topics often differs, and their judgment on possible solutions is correspondingly controversial. Two thirds of business leaders believe that the supply chain law, which has been obliging German companies to strictly monitor the social, human rights and ecological standards of their suppliers for a year, is nonsensical. 60 percent of the managers and entrepreneurs surveyed complain about a high or very high bureaucratic burden on their company due to the law, which the majority of politicians defend as sensible.
The collective agreements, which led to an average increase in collective wages of 5.6 percent in 2023 – more than twice as much as in the previous year, are also viewed differently. While politicians largely consider the financial statements to be manageable in terms of inflation, the majority of business leaders fear that the results are too high for many companies. When asked about the burden on their own company, 38 percent see the current collective agreements as a (very) big problem.
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