The European Parliament debates and votes this Wednesday on the new European Commission as a bloc after a week of doubts surrounding Teresa Ribera and Raffaele Fitto. An episode of tug-of-war that has served Ursula von der Leyen as a lesson: her majority in the European Parliament is not firm and the numbers for the community Executive and for the German one are weak. In fact, votes have been left along the way compared to July, when the German woman was re-elected as president. got 401 votes in favor and 284 against (in 2019 it had 383 yeses). Now there will not be so many MEPs, it seems, who are in favor of his new team.
All the cards are on the table. Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, assured this Tuesday that his They want “a majority that goes from the Greens to the ECR”but the progressive side does not go through that hoop, and its boss, Iratxe García, pointed out that her votes are “to provide stability” under the three-way agreement between them, the popular ones and the liberals, which, the Spanish woman said, “has not been the subject of criticism in their ranks.” Of course, the social democrats do not accept Weber’s route. “From the EPP we have worked on this idea of a broad center in the European Parliament, from the Greens to the ECR, the reasonable part of the conservative forces. And this is becoming a reality,” said the German. Meanwhile, Valerie Hayer, from the liberals, followed in the footsteps of S&D: yes to “understanding” with the environmentalists, but not with the radical right.
Piecemeal. PPE is not a monolithic element. Not even they will all vote yes to the Commission: precisely the Spanish PP falls out of the equation, which will vote against the entire College of Commissioners because it includes Teresa Ribera, singled out for her management of the DANA in Valencia that caused more of 220 dead. That is one of the key factors of the day, Well, there will be at least 22 MEPs from the conservative family who will not go in favor of the European Commission with a greater presence of the EPP throughout history. It remains to be seen if this rejection is in the form of a vote against or, more mildly, with abstention. It is relevant in itself because the PP is the second largest delegation in the group, only surpassed by the German one.
In the social democrats (S&D) there are also unknowns. But not because of Ribera, who is his greatest asset in the Community Executive, but because of Fitto, Giorgia Meloni’s man in Brussels. Just because the situation unraveled last week does not mean that everything is resolved among the progressives ahead of the plenary session. The obvious It would be that both the Italian PD and other delegations took a position against – or not in favor, which is not the same – of the Commission by the presence of the vice-president of Fratelli, who was once part of the EPP. Of course, the final objective is for the numbers to come out so that the Von der Leyen 2.0 cabinet is approved. “The goal is to get enough yeses,” acknowledge community sources consulted by 20 minutes.
The biggest twist, however, will occur in the Greens. Your case is particular. They censure the three-way pact between popular, social democrats and liberals to approve the vice presidents, Fitto included, because they consider that it “opens the doors to the extreme right”, but at the same time they make Ribera ‘theirs’. One of lime and another of sand. In that scenario, a family that voted in favor of Von der Leyen divides in two to approve his Executive in full. “There is a small majority in favor,” they acknowledged from the group, hours after receiving a wink from the German: she named as special advisor on climate policies to former Greens leader Philippe Lamberts. To tie your support? Perhaps, even in a context in which climate policies are going to take a backseat. Everything is doubts in their ranks. “You will ask us if we are sure that supporting them is going to work and the answer is no,” questioned one of its current leaders Terry Reintke.
With the liberals face the plenary session more calmly (Renew). Like the Greens, they do not have a significant force even though their votes are significant, but they are happy with two things: His strong man, Stephane Sejourné, will be de facto number 3 – or 2, along with Ribera – of the new Commission European Union and have managed to reduce to a minimum the powers of the Hungarian commissioner, Oliver Varhelyi, in charge of Animal Health and Welfare, but without power in terms of reproductive rights and pandemic management, two elements that will be in charge of Hadja Labib, a Belgian , Commissioner for Crisis Management and Equality… and liberal. Likewise, his signature appears in the three-way legislature pact.
The goal is to get enough yeses
Does Von der Leyen have an alternative majority so that her Commission can reach an agreement with the European Parliament? Yes and no. The bills may work out, but the radical right’s path is not a feasible one.. There are voices in the EPP that aspire to a formula with ECR and with the Patriots of Orbán and Voxbut that majority will not emerge if the AfD Sovereignists and some Non-Registered Members do not join. Yes, for some specific vote it can be given, but it is not a legislative block because, above all, Sovereignists have no incentive to support the Commission. Thus, it is most likely that as the months go by, the popular parties will oscillate between the two sides of the European Parliament depending on the issue that is on the table.
The community executive He has – more or less – clear his list of priorities. The industry, defence, strategic autonomy and competitiveness of the EU They are on the front line, to the detriment of the Green Deal or the social pillar. The left will not have much play in a Commission moved towards the global fight not only with respect to Russia and China, but also pushed by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. This rejection of climate policy or migration management causes exponential growth of the radical right in some countries, and that is why the focus has changed compared to the last five years. Von der Leyen has the great challenge of satisfying all ideological spectrums; but the balance will be one of those on a tightrope.
On December 1, if there is no major surprise in the plenary session, there will be a new European Commission for a legislature that seems very complicated. The new community Executive, except for major last-minute changes, will not reach the 401 votes that support Von der Leyen as president. That is to say, the majority is weak, and without there being a great risk of falling due to the lack of alternative sums, the nuances will rule the decision-making, and we will see an EPP playing on both sides. With this Wednesday’s vote the game begins.
#Wednesday #Commission #fractured #European #Parliament #Von #der #Leyen #majority #weak
