The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts the Earth at the end of 2032 is 1 in 83. At first glance it is a harmless figure, but it jumped at the head of the neo -impact risk list of the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. The 2024 YR4 was already classified at level 3 of the Turin scale, which indicates a close encounter and worthy of the attention of astronomers.
That does not panic
As experts explain, collision chances with our planet are still very low and, above all, these are preliminary estimates. We will have to wait until 2028 when the asteroid passes near our planet about 8 million kilometers, then it will be possible to collect more exact data.
The Atlas telescope discovered 2024 YR4 at the end of last year; According to its estimates, it has an estimated diameter of 60 meters and is currently more than 40 million kilometers from our planet. Calculations from the Neo -Study Center (CNEOS) show that it will approach Earth on December 22, 2032, exactly 106,200 kilometers. However, and taking into account the uncertainty of these preliminary estimates, the approach could be a failure. Or unlikely, in a direct impact against our planet. In the latter case, it could cause an explosion in the atmosphere and create a crater.
A popular belief about meteorites is that, after their impact on Earth, they can generate extensive winters that put life on the planet at risk.
Where could the asteroid collide with the earth?
David Rankin, NASA project engineer Catalina Sky Survey, declared Space.com that The “risk corridor” is located from South America through the Atlantic to South Africa: “It is important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will collide with the earth, and right now it is most likely to fail.” He adds that the estimation of the impact could be obsolete with new observations and better calculations of the orbit.
“Even in the event that the asteroid becomes impacting against us, this should not be a reason for concern, since we do not know the significant influence on the damage it could cause and that it is not yet possible to analyze with radar observations,” he emphasizes Rankin In summary, the specialist suggests that people should not worry for now, since the probability of colliding is still very low and as much as possible is that 2024 YR4 reaches the atmosphere as “a little visible rock.”
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What damages could cause?
If the current data is correct about the asteroid collision probability, and if it were made of a stone material, it could cause an important explosion in the air and a fireball would reach the ground; while if I was made of iron, the atmosphere would cross without major problems and create an impact crater. “That is why it is crucial to understand not only the orbit, but also the composition and size,” concludes Rankin, stressing that astronomers around the world will try to learn everything possible about 2024 and T4 before 2032.
Article originally published in Wired Italy. Adapted by Alondra Flores.
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