The world order is in review. As always that a great -draft productive revolution emerges, which takes the name of the greatest innovative challenge ever raised, artificial intelligence (AI), the international chess board wobbles without remedy. It is the thesis that defend diplomatic and analysts such as George Friedman, who founded and presides game. Although, meanwhile, episodes of anarchy arise.
“Casualities do not happen by magic,” Friedman warns when trying to explain the collateral damage caused by the aftershocks of a tsunami whose epicenter market seismographs are indisputably located in Washington. The Trump Administration, by transferring the equator of its first 100 days of management, has been able to create an authentic succession of tectonic movements in the commercial, economic, fiscal and stock market movements of unpredictable consequences.
For geostrategic partners and rivals such as Canada, Mexico or Europe – among the first – or as China, within the second ranks. But also for the US economy that in just a few months it has gone from being considered by the IMF as the only one between the high income powers with the possibility of starring a business superciclo due to its high productivity rate – to increase until its growth rate between again in cruise speed again when the decline of its activity begins – to listen to recession drums again. Or, in the best of the assumptions, of stagflation.
And what is worse. The bankruptcy of subsidies and stimuli to technology and renewable energies of the Biden Administration has not only paralyzed investments and corporate strategies, but this rupture of legal certainty occurs in the middle of a disorder in global governance, with multilateral institutions aimless o Gaza, with great depth geopolitical loads and innumerable hidden entions arising from negotiations without light or stenographers.
All this has returned to the forefront the risks of Decoupleing or fragmentation. Until now, focused on the danger of rupture of globalization in two commercial blocks, one led by the US and another by China, before the cross vetoes of both superpowers to dominate the competitive race to which it has undergone the flows of goods, services and capital and gain advantage in the fight for world technological hegemony.
However, Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office has transfigured the actors of the international scene. So much, that you start talking about full -fledged decoupling between the US and Europe. In addition to other overflows; Especially, with China, although also with emerging and industrialized latitudes.
Divergences against inflation and GDP
Hélène Baudchon, BNP Economist Paribas speaks of “the great dissociation between the US and Europe in 2025”. Apart from the trajectories they take, the euro area prepares for the takeoff of its activity in the heat of the Keynesian stimuli of the future German conservative chancellor. While the US is preparing to live a more or less abrupt landing based on the aggressiveness that Trump’s tariff strategy charges. In addition, the old continent navigates under a climate of relative price control, compared to the meteorological part of inflationary clouds that is coming in the largest global economy. To a large extent, for the increase in supplies that their companies from abroad demand, which would force the Federal Reserve to stabilize types in the current fork of 4.25-4.50%. The monetary immersion of the ECB is, instead, more prone to dive below the neutral levels of 2% in the medium term.
“The inflationary effects of Trumponomics He invokes a more restrictive Fed tactic and, therefore, more prone to stop the activity to contain inflation, ”says Baudchon. Hence a part of the market is inclined to rule out that Jerome Powell reducing types throughout this year. Unless the threats of interference of the republican leader on the dome of the American central bank so that the money is taken to Powell himself to remind Trump that his dismissal “is not allowed by law” and that he will not give up if he demanded as he did at the end of February his vice president of bank supervision, Michael Barr, to avoid a legal conflict with the tenant of the White House.
David Wessel, analyst at the Think Tank Brookings Institute, rescues an antecedent, from 1948, with the replacement of Marrner Eccles by President Truman, but also the vacant lot of Franklin Delano Roosevelt with a member of the Federal Commerce Commission, in 1935, by decision of the Supreme Court. The Fed Law indicates that its highest responsible can only be ceased for “justified causes”, not due to disagreements with the monetary policy that grants full autonomous powers to the Federal Reserve. And Powell’s mandate, whom Trump appointed in his previous term, expires in 2026 after being renewed by Joe Biden.
The Supreme Judgment, to More inriclarifies that a process of dismissal in supervision agencies must prove acts of “inefficiency, negligence in the fulfillment of their duties or embezzlement,” Wessel warns.
At the moment, Powell does not seem willing to follow Trump’s guidelines to lower types, boost dynamism and restore the value lost by the dollar in the last dates, which has returned to the green ticket from parity with the euro again. Although the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, eludes to speak of recession and, in collusion with his head of government, prefers to affirm that the US crosses an economic “process of transformation”. As much as the Fed insists on clothing of realism the situation: In 2025 the inflation forecasts will be reviewed up and down, down.
This double trajectory in GDPs and American and European prices has not only disintegrated the trajectories of the Fed and the ECB when widening the interest rates between the two shores of the Atlantic, but has led to asymmetries in its stock market places. Goldman Sachs explicitly explicitly. Wall Street has entered Barrena, with stock sales waves Made in us and alterations in their varying rental and transfer of “notable capital flows” to Europe, China and other emerging markets.
Investors change continents
The rethinking of investment strategies has been of such a dimension that in the market the idea has been installed that the so -called “American exceptionality” – thermal with which managers have wanted to describe for years the Differential of Wall Street benefits compared to other stock markets – has been installed in an investment limbo. Due to the uncertainty generated by the US tariff climbs and the sudden decrease in activity of their economy with the expenditure of consumers, which represents 70% of the vigor of GDP, in recoil, as well as retail sales, and with productivity, its recent propulsion engine, in deceleration from the last section of 2024: from 7% that marked at the end of the great pandemic to 1.5% October and December.
Meanwhile, European values have been revalued strongly. Following Germany’s attempt to take off the budget support to stimulate the economy. Although also by Trump’s militaristic order, which has lit in Europe the idea of configuring its own army, with industrial coordinates aimed at strengthening community arms firms.
The S&P 500 experiences losses in the environment of 4% and the Nasdaq composite of 8% this year, after the euphoria they witnessed during the days before and after the Trump’s possession. On the other hand, the Euro Stoxx 50 has gained 10.4% and the Hong-Kong SENG index up to 20%. The Magnificent Seven -Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla- have become malefic in some parcars in which European SMEs has rooted, which are a reliable lighthouse of economic recovery.
It may still be precipitated to ensure that the Decoupleing Between the US and Europe it is underway, but if there is a regulatory distancing in the field of sustainability, finance or technology, transatlantic ties could be released, André Sapir warns, of the Bruegel Institute.
Above all, because 25 years after the crisis of the Point-com palpable similarities can be extracted. The Nasdaq Composite began to fall from its historical maximum on March 10, 2000 and two years later had lost 78% of its capitalization. The first decline of technological values infected Europe – especially, Germany – and unleashed risk aversion that precipitated the outbreak of the speculative bubble.
Somehow, something smells in the markets similar to 2000, says Ted Mortonson, a Baird technology specialist. But, although there are now more bankruptcy risks of world order and multilateral framework with Trump, which could intensify stock volatility, the scenario is not quite similar because Europe has begun to leave its tactical lethargy with its historic American ally.
Giuseppe Sette, president of reflexivity explains to Business Insider Another variant. “The point.com was a crisis that was based on a fiction, the conversion of the Internet into a new economy, which was consumed 15 years later.” However, now, the AI floods the investment plans of the private sector and NVIDIA, after twice the stock market scepter, ahead of Apple and Microsoft, in the last year, a stock of stock market reality that escapes the corporate fragility of those first technological firms of the beginning of the millennium, precise.
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