Russia is ahead of Ukraine's allies in the race for ammunition. He writes about this on April 3 Bloomberg.
The agency says the flow of Western military aid to Kyiv has dropped sharply, with some Ukrainian guns firing just one shot a day to conserve dwindling supplies, according to officials from Ukraine's allies familiar with recent developments on the front line.
The material indicates that Kyiv's allies are trying to maintain the flow of supplies of shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), but this initiative is moving slowly and it is unclear whether it will achieve sufficient results in the short term.
Allies are increasingly concerned that a summer offensive by Russian troops could breach Ukraine's defenses, officials say. They note that Russian troops fire seven times more shells than their opponents. That's more than double the figure from late January, when Kyiv warned its allies it was outnumbered three to one.
In addition, recent Russian strikes have caused serious damage to Ukrainian infrastructure. According to one of the agency's interlocutors, the damage caused over the past few weeks is probably the most serious during the entire period of the confrontation. Additionally, these strikes could have long-term strategic consequences that would exacerbate the effect of the ammunition shortage.
The Estonian Ministry of Defense estimates that Russia will produce or refurbish about 4.5 million shells this year. Compared to Russia, the EU plans to produce only 1.4 million shells in 2024 and as many as 2 million next year. The US aims to produce 1.2 million ammunition by the end of 2025.
At the same time, the EU initiative to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March of this year had to be postponed until the end of the year. Of this amount, only half of the shells were delivered to Ukraine.
“We know that the Russian military industry is working in three shifts, and Ukraine’s stockpiles are rapidly dwindling,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaia Kallas told Bloomberg.
The day before, the head of the Estonian Foreign Ministry, Margus Tsahkna, said that Tallinn could join the Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine. According to him, two weeks ago the government decided to prepare a new package of military support worth €20 million.
On March 27, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that the country’s contribution to the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukraine will be doubled. However, he did not specify what specific amount he was talking about. Earlier, on March 21, he announced that Poland would take on logistical tasks for the delivery of ammunition purchased outside the European Union to Ukraine.
Also on March 21, it became known that Finland will allocate €30 million to participate in the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition, and Lithuania has already allocated more than €30 million on March 20.
Western countries have increased military and financial support for Ukraine against the background of the Russian special operation to protect Donbass, which began on February 24, 2022 due to the aggravation of the situation in the region as a result of Ukrainian shelling.
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