The West or Russia – who will hold out longer in the Ukraine war?

As successfully as Ukraine has so far resisted Russian aggression, Moscow is counting on time and weakening Western help. The question of who can last longer is becoming increasingly important.

Who has more stamina in the conflict over Ukraine: the Western aid workers or Moscow? Actually, the case should be clear in the relationship between the world's most powerful economies and Russia. But while Russian President Vladimir Putin has single-handedly brought his country to a war economy, Kiev's Western allies are finding it difficult to sustainably strengthen Ukraine's resilience.

Russia is said to have already used North Korean missiles in Ukraine and will soon also receive short-range missiles from Iran. Despite its own production problems, Moscow is opening up additional sources of supply for ammunition and weapons. On the other side is Ukraine, which is dependent on the West and has to be more economical with ammunition than Russia. Because the EU is behind on the promised delivery of one million rounds of artillery ammunition by March 2024. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Russian army currently uses 10,000 rounds of artillery ammunition per day, while Ukraine can fire 2,000 rounds.

EU reacts slowly compared to Russia

In early summer 2023, EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton met with criticism when he called for Europeans to follow Russia's example and also prepare the defense industry for a war economy. At the time, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius not only rejected the term, but also the idea that Europe's economy would have to be subordinated to the needs of the defense industry. But the tone changes. Putin is increasing Russia's arms production significantly, according to official figures by more than 60 percent, said Pistorius in a recent interview with “Welt am Sonntag”. NATO and Germany have some catching up to do and would have to be ready in “five to eight years”. What was meant was a possible confrontation with Russia.

In any case, Moscow has planned its budget for the next three years, which will give the military a large share. This year alone, more than seven percent of the gross domestic product is earmarked for the war machine. The proportion is also expected to remain high in 2025 and 2026. Even if the planning assumes excessive income from export trade in oil, Putin's premise – to take down Ukraine – is likely to remain intact.

In the long term, this is not a good development for Russia, says sociologist and economist Alexandra Prokopenko in an interview with Table.Media. The former employee of the Russian Central Bank left Russia after the start of the war in February 2022 and now works as an analyst for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “If so-called non-productive sectors, which include the defense industry, are overfunded, this slows down development in other areas,” explains Prokopenko.

Russia's biggest problem is the labor shortage

The labor shortage in Russia, which is linked to the draft for war, the war-related emigration of hundreds of thousands of well-qualified people and the poaching of workers to the defense industry, is already showing the first problems. In the short term, however, they will not have a noticeable impact on the Russian economy. In the short term, things look bleak for Ukraine.

As feared, the latest missile and drone attacks target civilian critical infrastructure. Russia is trying to circumvent Ukraine's improved air defense with masses. In return, Ukraine will receive additional air defense systems from Germany and other NATO countries. The NATO-Ukraine meeting on Wednesday, January 10th, hastily requested by Kiev, will explicitly address this topic again.

Combat in and from the air becomes more important

Both Ukraine and Russia have used the two years of war to expand and develop their drone fleets. Defense in and from the air will therefore have a strong influence on the next phase of the war. The fact that Europe did not strengthen Ukraine as well as it could have done for and before the spring offensive in 2023 is not only due to a lack of its own production capacity for ammunition. According to EU Commissioner Thierry Breton, Europe's defense industry
continues to export a good portion of its production to third countries. The Frenchman wanted the opportunity to oblige companies to prioritize their exports in favor of Ukraine. But the member states rejected this.

France and others, in turn, prevented EU funds from being used to purchase bullets from manufacturers outside the EU. South Korean manufacturers would be eligible. In addition, it is said in Brussels that the EU members have only reacted hesitantly to the framework agreements with Rheinmetall and Co. and have only placed a few orders so far.

Special summit in February should secure aid for Ukraine

The example of ammunition shows well that solidarity for Ukraine sometimes ends at the economic interests of the EU states. However, Thierry Breton remains confident that the production capacity for artillery shells can be expanded to one million per year by spring. The goal of one million bullets for Ukraine could also be achieved with a delay.

In the medium term, the prospects for Ukraine look better. EU Council President Charles Michel has called a special summit for February 1st. The 50 billion euro financial and economic aid for Ukraine is likely to be decided there in the second attempt. If necessary, 26 member states want to do this outside the EU budget if Viktor Orbán continues to block.

EU should make it more difficult to circumvent sanctions

In principle, NATO is not showing any signs of fatigue: “We will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg after the last NATO-Ukraine Council. The NATO states have bilaterally promised Ukraine military aid worth 100 billion euros, half of which now comes from European allies.

The alliance will celebrate its 75th anniversary in April and the next summit is planned for July in Washington. Joe Biden also wants to use this for his election campaign. Against this background, the NATO states will hardly be able to afford to relax their support. In Washington, Mark Rutte, the current favorite in the race to succeed Stoltenberg, could also formally take over the post of NATO Secretary General. The current Dutch head of government is firmly on Ukraine's side.

Too many loopholes for sanctions

However, the US alone is unlikely to deliver further large aid packages to Ukraine any time soon. At least they would not be as high as in 2022 and 2023, a White House spokesman said last week. The EU therefore has a growing role. EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell's plan to secure financing for military aid with 20 billion euros for the next four years has failed. The EU is likely to soon decide on a first annual tranche of five billion euros. In addition, Berlin alone has pledged eight billion euros in aid. This year, Ukraine is likely to receive more Leopard battle tanks, air defense systems and the first F-16 fighter jets. A coalition including the USA, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Great Britain is currently training Ukrainian pilots for the machine.

The question for the EU and other countries is how Russia can continue to be put under economic pressure. After twelve sanctions packages, Moscow is still managing to find loopholes. Economic expert Alexandra Prokopenko therefore says: “This year will not just be about new sanctions, but about their enforcement.” Russian companies and the government would devote considerable effort to circumventing the sanctions. “I think the West should more actively approach the states that are helping Russia in this, i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.”By Viktor Funk