Valencia celebrates from this Thursday, with the mascleta in the Plaza del Ayuntamiento and the lighting of the lights, its first Fallas in March after two years of cancellations due to the restrictions of covid-19 and the weather that will accompany its big week does not seem to be what is popularly known there as failure time, that is, warm temperatures in the central part of the day and clear skies. Except for the rain that is announced for this Friday evening, no new rainfall is expected this weekend but, as of Monday, the arrival of a storm, about whose trajectory there is much uncertainty, can tarnish the celebrations, more for the wind than by water.
To questions from this newspaper, José Ángel Núñez, head of Climatology of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in the Valencian Community, explains in more detail the forecast day by day. Thus, until Sunday it will be “calm weather, with the exception of this Friday afternoon-night, when a western front will pass that will leave widespread rainfall.”
On Saturday, Núñez specifies, “the wind will turn to the west and it will surely be the hottest day of the week of faults”, with temperatures that, at noon, will exceed 20º on the coast, with a forecast of 21º maximum in Valencia . But, especially from Wednesday, there will be a drop in temperatures and the atmosphere will be cold. At night, however, the temperatures will not be very cold during the entire fault week due to heavy cloud cover. This stable weather will continue on Sunday, although the west will cease and the temperatures “will be lower than on Saturday and there will also be more medium and high cloudiness.”
The changes will come from Monday, when a cold storm will drop and remain isolated from the general current of the atmosphere in the southwest of the Peninsula. “The movement of this cold storm will determine the weather throughout the week of Fallas,” warns the meteorologist. The problem is that “there are still great uncertainties” about the final path that the storm will follow, especially from Wednesday.
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At the moment, with the data available as of this Friday, on Monday “the weather will be very cloudy and uncertain in terms of rain. That day, the storm will begin to descend in the west of the Peninsula and a easterly wind flow will begin to form over the community. But, in his opinion, although it will rain, it will not be precipitation “very important on the coast or persistent, but rather weak and discontinuous.”
That same Monday, “the wind from the east and southeast will begin to accelerate, with occasional strong gusts, and the wind will continue with these characteristics at least until Wednesday.” In fact, the wind, and not the rain, will be the “most significant” weather phenomenon on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, with occasional strong gusts of 50 to 60 kilometers per hour.
“The southeast wind is not usually as strong in Valencia as the west wind, but it is more persistent and usually blows both during the day and at night. It affects more the maritime neighborhoods and open areas exposed to the east wind”, explains the expert. “Not much rain is expected on windy days. The little rain that could fall would be on Monday, but the combination of wind and rain usually has extra adversity, especially on days as sensitive as the 14th and 15th, the final days of the plant of the faults [cuando se están colocando los remate]”, details Núñez.
They are not winds that could endanger the stability of the monuments, in the opinion of the expert, since the Falleros are used to dealing with the wind, although it is not frequent in Fallas. In addition, the largest fallas are in the historic center, in small squares that protect them somewhat from the strong wind. However, many acts take place in the street and, in bad weather, some may be lackluster and others may even have to be suspended. The mascletasfor example, They start on March 1 and this year a couple of them have already been suspended due to rain.
On Tuesday, The storm will move further south and, although the strong wind will continue, a day is expected “with clear openings, less cloudiness and a low probability of precipitation.” If it occurs, that day the rain would be very weak. As of Wednesday, the uncertainty in the forecasts increases a lot, but from what it seems today “the storm will approach the Peninsula, which can lead to very cloudy skies between Wednesday and Friday. , with precipitation that can be in the form of showers. On Friday, the storm “will tend to fill up”, that is, to gradually disappear, on the Peninsula, with which “the probability of precipitation on Saturday 19, day of the crow“it would be reduced, although a cold and unpleasant environment would remain”.
Although no one, least of all hoteliers and restaurateurs, likes it to rain during their week of festivities ―in 2020, more than four million tourists attended the Fallas― These rains are gold for the fields and the reservoirs. Between October and February, Núñez specifies, the precipitation deficit in the Valencian Community was 58%, mainly due to the winter quarter (December-January-February), which was extremely dry, “the third driest winter in the Community Valencian since at least 1950″. The good news is that with March came the rains, which have been widespread. “In large areas it has rained more in these 10 days of March than in the entire previous quarter,” celebrates the expert.
The truth is that these 10 days of rain do not alleviate the previous deficit, but it does mean the breaking of the “anticyclonic blockade situation” that had been installed since January. “Spring rainfall has a very positive impact on many sectors, since it is less torrential than autumn rainfall and, therefore, is more useful in recharging aquifers, swamps, also in agriculture and for forest fire campaigns” , remembers the meteorologist.
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