The US tries to avoid its worst nightmare: an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in the middle of an election year

Nine stops in one week. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Istanbul this Friday on the first leg of his new, marathon tour of the Middle East. It is the fourth in three months and the most complicated so far. In addition to the objectives of previous visits—pressuring Israel to moderate its tactics in Gaza and outlining the future of the Strip after the war—this one seeks especially to prevent growing tensions in the region from degenerating into a much larger conflict. and unpredictable consequences, just when the US election campaign is about to begin.

Preventing the expansion of the crisis beyond Gaza had been the great objective of the United States since the beginning of the conflict after the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the beginning of the Israeli offensive in Gaza in response. For weeks, Washington reinforced its military presence in the region and the risk seemed relatively contained. But now the attacks by Yemen's Houthi militias in the Red Sea, the assassination with a drone of Hamas' number two, Saleh al Aruri, in Beirut and the harassment against US positions in Iraq and Syria are sparks that threaten to unleash an uncontrollable fire in the region, which would inevitably drag Washington into the heat of the electoral heat. It is a disastrous prospect for Joe Biden just when he is staking out re-election in next November's elections. The president who began his first term by announcing the withdrawal from Afghanistan ends it with open conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“The risk is real and the concerns are great. It has always been real and the concern has always been great. That is why the pace of activity of this Administration to reduce the risk of the conflict expanding has been great since the beginning” of the crisis, noted State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller when announcing Blinken's trip.

Washington's anger with Israel

The escalation in tensions also comes at a delicate time in relations between Washington and Israel. The United States maintains its support for its ally, both in statements and with the shipment of weapons: just a week ago the Biden Administration once again bypassed Congress to approve 147.5 million dollars (135 million euros) in ammunition and equipment for your partner. But his irritation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is increasingly visible. This week, the State Department condemned in especially exasperated language the statements of two Israeli ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who called for emptying Gaza of its Palestinian residents.

Concerned about the turn of events, the White House has launched a full-fledged diplomatic offensive. Blinken's trip was preceded by a visit to Israel this week by presidential advisor Amos Hochstein, while in Washington the Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, met with the Lebanese Foreign Minister on Wednesday.

“I return to the region to engage in additional diplomacy on the situation in Gaza. “I will continue to urge the protection of civilian lives and work intensively with our partners to ensure the release of the hostages and the sustained delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza,” Blinken wrote on X, the old Twitter, immediately before embarking on a trip to Turkey.

Its mission goes further, according to the State Department. “It will address urgent mechanisms to stop the violence, calm the rhetoric and reduce regional tensions, including deterring Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and avoiding an escalation in Lebanon,” he noted when announcing the trip.

The head of American diplomacy will visit, in addition to Turkey and the Greek island of Crete, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt. “We don't expect every conversation on this tour to be easy. Obviously, the region faces complicated issues and difficult decisions on the road ahead,” acknowledged State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

In Israel, Blinken plans to highlight “the need to do more to reduce tensions in the West Bank,” call for “immediate measures to substantially increase humanitarian aid to Gaza” and address the government's plans for the “transition to the next phase.” of operations,” according to the spokesperson.

They will be some of the harshest conversations of the tour. Israel rejects the two-state solution advocated by the United States and proposes a Palestinian civil administration in Gaza while maintaining military control of the territory. He assures that he will continue his offensive and demands that Washington obtain from Hezbollah an end to its rocket fire from southern Lebanon to northern Israel and a withdrawal north of the Litani River. This week he warned Hochstein that time is running out for such mediation and threatens to deal a severe blow to the Iranian-backed Shiite militia.

Time for democracy

Washington perceives that there is still time for diplomacy. “From everything we see, there is no clear desire by Hezbollah to go to war with Israel, and vice versa,” noted a senior Administration official this week, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But at the same time, the United States is hardening its military posture. Although it has withdrawn one of the two aircraft carriers it sent to the area at the beginning of the conflict, the Gerald Fordmaintains the Eisenhower and a group of combat ships, as well as the additional aircraft and soldiers with which it has been reinforced.

This Thursday he killed the leader of a Shiite militia in Baghdad with a drone, something that has caused the fury of the Iraqi Government. Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al Sudan has announced a committee to schedule the departure of international coalition forces from the country.

In the Red Sea, the United States is leading a coalition of more than a dozen countries to protect merchant ships from Houthi attacks, more than 25 since the crisis began. Earlier this week, the coalition issued a harsh warning against new attacks and promised that these militias also backed by Iran “will bear the consequences” if clashes are repeated. “Do not expect a second warning,” the aforementioned senior US official pointed out in this regard.

But on Thursday these militias launched an unmanned ship packed with explosives into the Red Sea for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. It did not hit any ships, according to the Pentagon, but it did contribute to further raising the temperature in the region. Washington's great fear is that one of these attempts will end up sinking a merchant ship, something that would represent a serious escalation.

The White House assures that it will act decisively to protect the interests of the United States and its citizens, but also that it does not want to contribute to triggering a situation in which it could be dragged into a greater role in the Middle East.

“We will act very forcefully regarding any threat against our people or our interests. We are also going to do it in a very intelligent way, which potentially does not drag us into the depths of a situation that plays in favor of those groups” supported by Iran, the senior official maintained.

Follow all the international information on Facebook and xor in our weekly newsletter.

_