The progressive disinterest of the United States in the war in Ukraine is manifesting itself more strongly as the presidential elections of November 5 approach. Washington looks towards Asia, where the strengthened alliances between China and Russia, and Moscow with Iran and North Korea will be the great foreign challenge for the new occupant of the White House, be it the Democrat. Kamala Harris or the republican donald trump.
China does not like being put in the same bag as North Korea or Iranin that twisted “axis of evil” copied by the US from that other one that allowed it to incite the West against Iraq or Afghanistan. For the White House it is simply a way to justify his hegemonist steps in Asia and to withdraw little by little from Ukraine.
An example of the growing American detachment towards the Ukrainian conflict is the refusal of the White Housereiterated this week, to authorize the use by the Ukrainian army of long-range missiles against targets in Russia.
This is one of the main points of the Victory Plan of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskypresented with great fanfare in the US and Europe, but without a favorable reception. Its adoption by NATO would pave the way towards direct confrontation with Russia and neither Brussels nor Washington are in favor of that work.
The US prefers that Ukraine defend itself
As an alternative to Western rockets hitting Russian soil, Washington announced this week an investment of $800 million in the Ukrainian military industry for the production, among other weapons, of long-range missiles.
This was indicated in kyiv by the American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austinto Zelensky, to whom he communicated the delivery of 400 million dollars in ammunition and weaponsand the investment of those 800 million dollars to manufacture missiles and drones with which to attack Russia.
“I think this answers and meets the needs that they will have not only now but also in the future,” Austin said. The soldier stressed that Drones can hit targets at greater distances than ATACMS missiles Americans that the Ukrainians are asking for along with authorization to use them against bases, arsenals, airfields and infrastructure in Russia.
However, Austin avoided mentioning the superior destructive capacity of US missilesits greater speed and its more complicated interception by Russian anti-aircraft systems.
Nor did he highlight the detail that the Ukrainians are currently losing the war and that when all those new or renovated factories with American help operate at full capacity, the conflict may possibly be over.
Russia is advancing on the eastern front, has stopped the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, and is producing weapons at a rate that it is very difficult for Ukraine to match.
Ukraine, the future armed arm of the US in Europe
The American bet on Ukraine defending itself reveals the new American strategy that is already being modeled before the elections. If the winner is Kamala Harris, the gradual withdrawal from the Ukrainian war theater will allow Washington to better face an eventual extended crisis in the Middle East and, above all, send a deterrence warning to China.
If the winner is Donald Trump, the uncertainty is greater, since The former US president has promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Sooner or later, such a step would mean a debacle for kyiv, since Europe does not have the means or the unity to drag out the conflict for years, as Moscow threatens.
The real bet of the US, which becomes evident day by day, is turn Ukraine into a well-armed ally in Eastern Europeeven if it does not enter NATO as kyiv intends and even if it loses a fifth of its territory. For Washington’s strategy, this buffer country would allow Russia to be very busy in a new cold war and divert Moscow’s attention from the Middle East and East Asia.
The Iranian friend
In the BRICS summit held this week in KazanRussia, it became clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not isolated internationally and that has the support, or at least not the rejection, of the other four large countries in that group, Brazil, India, China and South Africa. The rest of the BRICS members – Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran – are either friends of Moscow or they do not want problems with the Russians.
Tehran is the mortal enemy in the Middle East of the United States and its ally Israel, which continues to seek the opportune moment to launch a massive attack against Iran in response to its bombardment of Israeli territory with missiles and drones on October 1.
But Russia has already warned Israel to be very careful about the extent of that retaliation.. This warning and the moderation demanded by the US are still making Tel Aviv gauge the dimension of its inevitable military response.
That is why the meeting in Kazan of the Russian president and his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkianwas so significant. The two countries are finalizing a strategic treaty which may not stop the Israeli attack, but it will make it more difficult for it to lead to an all-out war in the Middle East.
Above all, it will prevent anyone in the White House from thinking of taking advantage of the chaos unleashed by Israel with its invasions of Gaza and Lebanon to overthrow the ayatollah regime. Iranian support for Russia with hundreds of drones and missiles to be used in Ukraine makes Tehran a necessary friend of Moscow and for which it is worth taking a hit at the Middle East table.
Iran is one of the members of the new “axis of evil” of the US Administration who repeat the position of that other club of evil states that the president George W. Bush launched in 2002 as a preamble to the invasion of Iraq, another of the then cursed countries. The other was North Korea, which also repeats, and later Syria, Libya and even Cuba were added.
China, the real objective of the US
The components of this “axis of evil” in Washington are Russia, Iran, North Korea and, as the most powerful opponent, China. The economic weight of the Asian giant, its growing international geopolitical strength and the pressure that it exerts in the Asia-Pacific region against the questioned US hegemonism, provide Beijing with a potential challenge to the US that requires Washington’s full capacitywithout wasting time in post-Soviet wars with no chance of being won.
China is also accused of providing Russia with dual-use technology that Moscow would be using in its “war economy” to manufacture advanced weapons.
Furthermore, it is the protector of North Koreawhich these days unnerves Washington and its allies. South Korean and Ukrainian allegations that North Korea has sent thousands of its soldiers to Russia to be deployed on the front lines have set off alarm bells in the United States.
With North Korean soldiers, the East goes to war in Ukraine
There could be 3,000 North Korean soldiers already preparing in Russia to enter combat in Ukrainealthough the data provided by Seoul and kyiv point to 12,000 troops from the “hermit country” enlisted for that foreign war.
These troops could enter into combat against the Ukrainian forces in that Russian region of Kursk where on August 6 thousands of soldiers from the kyiv army invaded and took up to 1,300 square kilometers. Now they would be defending only half of that surface.
Neither Russia nor North Korea have confirmed or denied the deploymentbut this Friday the North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister for Russian Affairs, Kim Jong–gyuhinted that such information is not misguided. “If something like what the international media is talking about happens, I think it would be an action that complies with international legal standards,” Kim said in a statement carried by the state news agency KCNA.
Americans, Europeans, Japanese and South Koreans do not know how to respond, since North Korea is already saturated with sanctions and No one would dream of touching a hair of a very aggressive regime armed with nuclear bombs and protected by China. However, Seoul is already considering sending weapons to Ukraine as part of that response.
The German chancellor himself, Olaf Scholzsaid this Friday that Putin is “very desperate,” but acknowledged that Perhaps the time has come for Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia in order to avoid greater evils.
The North Korean presence in Ukraine, where the regime Kim Jong-un could send hundreds of thousands of soldiers if necessary, is, according to Scholz, “another reason why, in addition to the necessary, firm and reliable support for Ukraine, we also have to explore together with Ukrainians how we can now achieve a just and equitable peace“.
The Duma ratifies the mutual military aid pact between Russians and North Koreans
Western and American nervousness in particular is understandable. This Thursday, Russian lawmakers unanimously ratified the Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed by Putin and Kim Jong-un in June, which contains a section capable of disrupting the security system in Asia.
This defense pact contemplates “mutual military assistance” in the event of external aggressionthus shielding the North Korean regime from any action by the US or its allies, while opening the doors of its influence in Asia to Moscow. According to The Wall Street Journalwhich cites Pentagon sources, a “secret clause” of the treaty would include sending North Korean soldiers to Ukraine. How many? That’s him crux of the issue.
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