The United States is evaluating making sanctions against Venezuela more flexible again

The lever of United States sanctions has graduated the last leg of the Venezuelan political conflict. After revoking two weeks ago one of the oil licenses given within the framework of the Barbados Agreement, for pointing out non-compliance on the part of the Government of Nicolás Maduro, the Undersecretary of State for the West, Brian Nichols, has declared this week that they are recalibrating the positions after the admission of the candidacy of Edmundo González Urrutia, in the third attempt by the opposition to register a name to participate in the presidential elections, and the steps taken to carry out the electoral observation of the European Union and the Carter Center.

In an editorial published in Voice of America, the US official said: “We were forced to suspend General License 44 on oil and gas, issuing a new license, General License 44A, which provides a liquidation period of 45 days.” He later added: “We also remain very committed to the process of supporting competitive elections. The selection of a unified opposition candidate like Edmundo González Urrutia and the acceptance of him by the electoral authorities in Venezuela is a very important positive step,” he stated. “We hope to see other continued positive steps and remain open to reciprocating those positive steps in the future.”

The revocation of General License 44 did not mean a total regression to the scenario of greater siege for Venezuela. The United States gave a deadline until the end of May for companies that started business with the state oil company PDVSA to close the transactions in process and opened the way to the approval of specific licenses for each company that wants to continue operating in Venezuela. But the pressure was enough for Chavismo to abandon its blockade on the registration of a third unitary opposition candidacy. At least in institutional forms, the Government retreated from its strategy. Maduro also dismissed pressure from Washington. “There is no sanction, there is no threat that, today, will harm the effort to build a new productive economic model, because today we do not depend on anyone in this world, we only depend on our effort, our work, the union that we have,” he declared when the license was withdrawn after six months of being active.

But with its judicial and police arm, Chavismo has continued with the repression. Last weekend, three political activists close to María Corina Machado were arrested, chosen by the opposition in the primary last October, and who, although prevented from participating due to a disqualification issued without a trial, continues to campaign throughout the country to promote the vote for González Urrutia. This persecution against the leader’s entourage was criticized at the beginning of the week by Nichols himself. More opposition politicians have also been disqualified.

In the speech, Venezuelan officials have assured that they are prepared to live with sanctions. At the same time, they have undertaken a strong campaign against the measures as part of the narrative against the opposition. In Caracas, billboards have been displayed on the highways with messages that hold those who oppose the Government responsible for the country’s crisis, some even with the faces of Machado and Leopoldo López, accusing them of having requested sanctions to which the Government attributes the sole cause of the economic debacle of the oil country, although the fall began long before these measures were imposed. This afternoon, at the Labor Day march, Maduro asked the crowd to chant with him the phrase in English: “Biden, lift sanctions now.”

In this election year, both for Venezuela and the United States, the rope is tightened and loosened according to the movements of each country, which go beyond the formal negotiations between Chavismo and the opposition. The immigration issue is crucial for the internal policy of the United States and it is Venezuelans who are topping the lists of nationalities that exert pressure on the US border. For Chavismo, relief from sanctions was crucial to increase public spending in the run-up to July 28 in a scenario of social unrest due to low wages and falling consumption. Therefore, in the three months left until the elections in Venezuela, the sanctions lever could move again.

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