As China’s spy balloon drifted over the continental United States in February, American intelligence agencies learned that President Xi Jinping of China had become enraged at his top generals.
The agencies had been trying to find out what Xi knew and what actions he would take when the balloon, originally aimed at US military bases in Guam and Hawaii, was blown off course by wind. Xi was not opposed to risky spy operations, but American intelligence agencies concluded that the People’s Liberation Army had not been informed until the balloon was over the United States.
U.S. officials would not reveal how spy agencies obtained this information, but they found that when Xi realized the balloon was derailing planned talks with Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, he reprimanded the top generals. rank for not telling him what happened.
The episode highlighted the growing spy competition between the United States and China.
For Washington, the efforts are critical to President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strategy of limiting China’s rise, consistent with his thinking that the country poses the greatest long-term challenge to American power.
For Beijing, the new tolerance for bold actions is driven by Xi, who has instructed his military to take aggressive action along the country’s borders and has pressured his foreign intelligence agency to become more active in closer places. remote.
Efforts on both sides are aimed at answering two difficult questions: What are the intentions of the leaders of rival nations and what military and technological capabilities do they possess?
U.S. officials, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity, have emphasized the magnitude of the challenge. The CIA is focusing on Xi, particularly his intentions regarding Taiwan. FBI counterintelligence task forces have stepped up their search for Chinese efforts to recruit spies in the United States. Agents have identified a dozen intrusions by Chinese nationals into military bases on U.S. soil in the past 13 months.
Both countries are rushing to develop their artificial intelligence technology, which they believe is critical to maintaining an advantage and will give their spy agencies new capabilities.
Taken together, U.S. officials say, China’s efforts span all facets of national security, diplomacy and advanced technology in the United States and partner countries. The CIA and the US Defense Intelligence Agency have established new specialized centers in China.
This espionage conflict is even broader than the one that developed between Americans and Soviets during the Cold War, said Christopher A. Wray, director of the FBI.
“The fact is, compared to the People’s Republic of China, we are outnumbered on the ground, but it is up to us to defend the American people here at home,” Wray said. “I see this as the challenge of our generation.”
But Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, has said that “the United States is the number one surveillance country and has the largest spy network in the world.”
Espionage can stop a slide toward war or pave the way for negotiations, but it can also accelerate nations toward armed conflict or cause diplomatic divisions.
Weeks after canceling a major trip to Beijing over the balloon episode, Blinken confronted China’s top diplomat with a U.S. intelligence assessment that Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Russia. That revelation raised tensions, but could also be preventing China from sending the weapons, US officials say.
China’s vastly improved satellite reconnaissance and cyber intrusions are its most important means of gathering intelligence, U.S. officials say. The spy balloon fleet, although much less sophisticated, has allowed China to exploit the unregulated zone of “near space.” And the US government is warning its allies that China’s electronic surveillance capabilities could expand if the world’s nations use technology from Chinese companies.
US officials are also more concerned than ever about Chinese agencies’ efforts to gather intelligence via personal contacts. They say China’s Ministry of State Security aims to place agents or recruit assets throughout the US government, as well as in technology companies and the defense industry.
Every time an American accepts a publicly disclosed intelligence job, they can expect a flurry of outreach from Chinese nationals on social media, according to current and former officials.
In response to that threat, US agencies have expanded their spy capture operations. And Wray said the FBI has thousands of open investigations into Chinese intelligence.
“What makes the PRC’s intelligence apparatus so pernicious is how it uses every means at its disposal at once against everyone, combining cyber, human intelligence, corporate transactions and investments to achieve its strategic objectives,” Wray said.
But critics say some of the U.S. government’s counterintelligence efforts are racially biased and paranoid.
China has embarked on its own crusade. On July 1, he enacted an expansion of a counterespionage law. And in August, the Ministry of State Security announced that “all members of society” should help combat foreign espionage and offered rewards for information.
A decade ago, the American informant network in China was eliminated by Chinese counterintelligence officials after the informants’ identities were discovered. The CIA has faced a challenge in rebuilding it.
China’s electronic surveillance has made it difficult for US officials to move freely in China. It has AI software that can recognize faces and detect a spy’s walking style, meaning traditional disguises are not enough, a former intelligence official says. And Xi limits his use of phones or electronic communications, making it difficult to intercept his orders. But officials in the vast bureaucracy under Xi do use electronic devices.
Under William J. Burns, CIA director since 2021, the agency has increased spending on China-related efforts and created a new mission center in China. Burns said publicly in July that he had made progress in rebuilding a “strong human intelligence capability.”
Some U.S. officials believe Xi’s authoritarian governing style offers an opportunity to recruit disaffected Chinese citizens, including among the political and business elite.
China has also poured resources into shaping the thinking of senior American officials. A Justice Department indictment released in July suggests that government-linked Chinese businessmen were trying to recruit James Woolsey, a former CIA director who was held up as a potential Trump administration national security cabinet official. right after the 2016 elections.
More recently, a highly targeted penetration of Microsoft’s cloud computing platform gave China access to the emails of high-level diplomats, including the U.S. Ambassador to Beijing and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
No issue has taken on greater importance than Taiwan. According to analysts, it is the source of tension that is most likely to lead to war. Xi has said China must take control of Taiwan, a de facto independent island, and has ordered his military to be able to do so by 2027. But the US and its allies do not appear to have concrete intelligence on whether he would order an invasion. .
But intelligence gathering is not in itself a prelude to war. U.S. intelligence officials believe China does not want to go to war now over Taiwan, Avril D. Haines, director of national intelligence, told the U.S. Congress in March.
“We assess that Beijing still believes it benefits most from avoiding spiraling tensions and preserving stability in its relationship with the United States,” he said.
By: Julian E. Barnes and Edward Wong
BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/17/us/politics/us-china-global-spy-operations.html, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-10-19 22:00: 07
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