Amid the accusations crossed between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, the ceasefire reached with the mediation of the United States and France has entered its second week and the fragile truce in Lebanon has not collapsed, despite everything.
Since the beginning of the cessation of hostilities on November 27, Israel has continued to attack Hezbollah fighters who, as Tel Aviv denounces, continue to operate. This Wednesday, one week after the ceasefire came into force, the Lebanese Government stated that it had counted 60 violations of the agreement by Israel.
This agreement requires Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, located about 30 kilometers from the border with Israel, thus leaving a buffer zone between the group and Israel; It also establishes that the troops of the official Lebanese Army be deployed in that strip – being the only ones that remain in the area together with the UN peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL)–.
The withdrawal of Hezbollah and the deployment of Lebanese soldiers should coincide with the departure of Israeli troops from Lebanon, all within 60 days of the agreement entering into force. But so far there has been no significant progress and Israel has asked Lebanese civilians not to return to the southern areas it ordered them to leave during its offensive. Nor has it allowed its citizens in the north to return to the towns they abandoned about 14 months ago, when the daily exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces began, following the punishment war that Israel launched against the Gaza Strip after on October 7, 2023.
A necessary pause for both sides
The Lebanese analyst from the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP), Drew Mikhael, tells elDiario.es that it is likely that in this first phase of the agreement the conflict will once again be of low intensity, with limited exchanges of fire between the two parties – as it was until Israel launched its bombing campaign against Lebanon about two months ago. “If we define the ceasefire as the absence of widespread hostilities throughout Lebanon, then it can hold out for the first 60 days,” he says.
“Israel is interested in reducing the levels of violence right now, because its armed forces need to recover. But as soon as they do, I don’t trust that we won’t see a new increase in violence,” explains the expert from the Washington-based institute. “I also think the Israelis need to know to what extent Hezbollah has been damaged and can be contained in the long term,” Mikhael adds.
In a clear warning, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said this week that if his men return to war they will act “stronger and deeper and, most importantly, there will be no exception for the Lebanese state.” Katz warned that they will not differentiate between Hezbollah and Lebanon, that is, that they would attack any target without distinction (which is not new, since Israel has hit places and people not always linked to the Shiite group, as they have denounced the Lebanese authorities).
From October 8, 2023 to the present, more than 4,000 people have died – including 316 children – and more than 16,000 have been injured in Lebanon, the vast majority in October and November 2024 due to intense Israeli bombing of several areas. of the country. Many were civilians living in areas where Hezbollah has a presence and influence – in southern and eastern Lebanon, and in the capital, Beirut.
The Israeli Army claims to have killed 2,500 militiamen of the Shiite group until the same day the truce came into force; and Hezbollah admits that hundreds of its men have died. Furthermore, Israel has beheaded the armed and political organization, killing its top leader, Hasan Nasrallah, and almost all of its military leaders, in addition to having hit its infrastructure and arsenals.
According to the TIMEP analyst, the fact that Hezbollah has accepted the terms of the agreement shows that it is weakened and that it needs time to reevaluate some issues, but it is also aware that the Lebanese Army is not capable of replacing its fighters in the south. of the country. “For them, this pause is very important because they are in a really very difficult situation,” says Mikhael in a telephone conversation.
What role do the State and the Lebanese Army have?
For its part, the Lebanese Government is interested in maintaining the ceasefire and restoring calm in the south of the country, the expert points out. “The reality on the ground is that the Army does not have the logistical capacity” to deploy in the south and replace Hezbollah, especially in the event that violence increases again, adds Mikhael.
“The Army cannot wage war with Israel, it cannot defend the country’s borders, and if Israeli forces continue bombing Lebanese soil, the Army should be able to respond as any army would, but it does not have that capability.” The TIMEP analyst considers that, therefore, it is impossible for the points of the agreement relating to the official Army to be fulfilled.
This same week, the Armed Forces have announced a recruitment process for volunteers to join the units that will be deployed on the border with Israel. According to a statement from the Ministry of Defense cited by the EFE Agency, “trained soldiers who are willing and comply with the conditions” are needed. Among these conditions are age (between 18 and 25 years), that the applicants be single, widowed without children or divorced without children and that they commit to disassociate themselves from any association or party.
This week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi Arabia and met with the crown prince and prime minister of the country, Mohamed bin Salmán. Macron, who is one of the main defenders of the ceasefire agreement, wants the Saudi monarchy to finance the battered Lebanese Army with petrodollars, since the Beirut Government does not have the resources to train and arm its own soldiers – who, in some cases, do not receive their salaries either due to the liquidity crisis in Lebanon.
Anxiety and uncertainty
“We are going to be living in a state of existential anxiety. The attacks and overflights of Israeli drones continue, Israel continues to intimidate the Lebanese people, threatening daily what it will do to them if its conditions of the agreement are not met,” laments Mikhael. “We cannot imagine the circumstances under which bombings and extreme violence will not occur again.”
“If we had a fair international arbitration in Lebanon and if the international community had been more interested in getting involved from the beginning, we might have hope. But right now we only feel anxiety about what may come,” concludes the Lebanese analyst.
In addition to this uncertainty regarding the future and the possibility of a new escalation of violence, the Lebanese face the serious consequences of the war on their economy, which since 2019 has been mired in a serious crisis – the poverty rate has reached 44% in 2024, according to the World Bank.
According to a recent evaluation by that institution, the small Arab country has suffered losses and damages worth $8.5 billion (about 8,000 million euros) in the past year. The economic losses caused by the conflict with Israel alone exceed $5 billion, while the cost of physical destruction is around $3.4 billion in the six most affected provinces. Without going any further, some 100,000 homes in Lebanon have been totally or partially damaged.
A week after the ceasefire came into effect, some 600,000 people have begun to return to their homes, especially in southern Lebanon, according to UN figures. Local authorities estimate that around 1.5 million people have been displaced by violence since October 2023, although the vast majority were displaced by bombing and the Israeli invasion of the south of the country this October.
On the Israeli side of the border, numerous homes have also been damaged and the communities closest to Lebanese territory were evacuated in October last year – and more than 60,000 residents remain displaced. One of the objectives of the invasion of the neighboring country set by the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu was precisely to allow the return of the inhabitants of northern Israel, where Hezbollah rockets have been falling almost daily, until last November 27 (more of 20 civilians have died from these attacks).
On December 2, the militia claimed responsibility for launching two projectiles into Israeli territory in its first attack since the beginning of the ceasefire – to which Israel responded with several attacks against towns in southern Lebanon. Despite the exchange of fire, the truce did not collapse and continues to this day.
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