Only someone who has been successfully working in the financial markets for 20 years – and who also exudes a lot of self-confidence – warns that he is going to summarize the history of macroeconomics in just 20 seconds. “Since the stone age, human beings have developed technological advances that have generated more productivity, releasing disposable income which in turn has brought improvements in consumption,” Carlos Val-Carreres (Zaragoza, 1976) rattles off. His business card says he is a manager of the MyInvestor Value fund, but he prefers to define himself as someone who has developed a method that discovers investment ideas. “If you generate good ideas and manage them correctly, you will have positive results,” he says.
He cut his teeth professionally at Ibercaja and made a name for himself in the sector managing the assets of the former president of Telefónica César Alierta, through his Sicav Lierde. Now, in the neobank of the Andbank group, he continues to perfect his magic potion — “in life you have to evolve, and in management too” — to catch good returns on the stock market. And to do this he applies a system from which he does not deviate a millimeter. A system with three phases.
The first part of the method is the company filter. A sieve that not everyone passes. Quoting at attractive prices is a necessary requirement, but not sufficient. “I like companies with an owner, that is, with a reference shareholder who accompanies me and puts their money on the line,” he explains. “Also companies with an ROE [rentabilidad financiera] that exceeds the cost of capital by 300 basis points, with little debt and who prefer to reinvest profits rather than pay too many dividends,” he adds.
Once the selection of values is made, the second phase arrives, which has been defined as the “theory of derivatives”. Val-Carreres believes that, more than economic cycles, what really determines the evolution of the market are the major structural trends promoted by technological changes. And he, instead of trying to detect the clearest case of success at each turning point in history, prefers to bet on the supporting actors who make them possible. “I give you two examples,” he continues. “Amazon is the winner of the e-commerce boom, but when this form of distribution began no one could know. What could be intuited was that we were facing a paradigm shift in consumption. That led me to bet on cardboard companies, due to the upcoming increase in demand for packaging and transportation,” he explains.
Artificial intelligence and clean energy
When Covid arrived, he used the same logic. “The temptation was to bet on the pharmaceutical company that was capable of developing a vaccine, which was like shooting a shot in the air. Therefore, knowing that the pandemic was going to bring clear changes in people’s habits, I invested in manufacturers of motorhomes, gym equipment or kitchen furniture,” she summarizes.
The next tectonic movement in the economy comes on the back of artificial intelligence (AI) and clean energy. And, once again, Val-Carreres deploys his sense of smell to detect outsiders and draw connections in the shadows. “AI is super energy intensive. Therefore, the energy transition is the smartest way to have exposure to AI with less risk,” he argues.
After applying the filter and the derivatives, comes the third phase of the method: risk management. His fund portfolio is invested mainly in small-cap European companies—he acknowledges without saying the cursed word, bubble, that the valuation of American technology groups is beginning to get out of hand—and that implies higher volatility. In order to tame the swings in quotes—and prevent clients from getting scared and ending up leaving—he applies two apparently contradictory criteria: diversification and concentration. To achieve diversification, your fund typically holds between 25 and 30 stocks; To achieve concentration, the first 10 positions in the portfolio must represent 40% of the total volume of the fund, but individually none must exceed 5%. Another non-negotiable premise is liquidity: if things go wrong, you must be able to undo your positions in a few days.
MyInvestor Value manages 35 million euros. Since the launch of the vehicle in November 2021, profitability has exceeded 15% and, currently, the main positions in its portfolio are Verbio, Roche, Logista, Nokia, Billerud, Plastic Omnium and Veralia.
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