Several people, especially from abroad, have asked me if there will be a return to a certain constitutional normality with the departure of Lopez Obrador and the arrival of Sheinbaum to the Presidency. The question always contains a certain recognition that AMLO’s administration has been problematic – it has meant social, democratic and institutional erosion – but perhaps a new government can bring about an improvement. I would like my answer about what is coming to be more optimistic, but what his predecessor leaves behind does not leave much room for optimism.
Mexico The country is experiencing a crisis of violence that has only worsened over the course of the six-year term. If the promise at the beginning of the government was to pacify the country, de-escalate the war on drugs and offer real alternatives to the frontal fight against organized crime, the result was very bad. The figures for missing persons, homicides and internal displacement have reached levels never seen before. The government insists that the situation has improved. However, there are serious questions about the veracity of the figures on which the authorities base their affirmation of this. Organized crime now controls important parts of Mexican territory (including highways), without opposition from the State, and has become one of the main employers in the country.
The security strategy of this government was not to end the war but to fully militarize public security and toughen the penal system. Today, more crimes lead to preventive detention, which increases the discretion of the ministerial authorities who, with a simple indication of suspicion, can imprison a person until their trial is resolved. The impunity that characterizes the prosecution of crimes, on the other hand, was left intact and with terrible precedents. Both the FGR like the one in Mexico City were used to spy on or criminally prosecute political opponents.
Constitutional counterweights – whether autonomous bodies such as the Inai, the CNDH or the INE or the federalist organization of the State, have been greatly weakened. And the disappearance of all judicial powers is still pending.
This, moreover, happens in an environment of social and political polarization that is fueled every morning from National PalaceIn his daily press conference, López Obrador criticizes and disqualifies journalists and non-governmental organizations, exhibiting the properties and personal data, including telephone numbers, of those who question the government from various areas.
He also criticizes institutions that block administrative decisions or object to public policies. The strategy is always the same: invalidate the reasons for the questioning or ruling, label those involved as conservative, corrupt or alien to the interests of the people.
Perhaps the new president will improve the social and political environment, but the legal and institutional framework she receives, especially without power of attorney, It is one of zero checks and balances, with no serious obligations of transparency or accountability, with the military in all parts of government and the penal system at the discretion of the authorities.
It will depend on her will whether or not she abuses power. Sheinbaum may be a good person – and a ruler – but, excuse my pessimism, I do not believe that countries should depend on the good will of their rulers to avoid abuses, but on their institutions, citizens and the real division of power. The table is set for the return of the authoritarianism that we seemed to have left behind.
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