A good result for the 5-Star Movement in its fiefdom in the southern regions would prevent the absolute majority of the conservative coalition led by Meloni
On this Sunday of legislative elections in Italy, where the polls remain open between 7 in the morning and 11 at night, the attention is on the south of the country. The result that the 5 Star Movement (M5E) obtains there, the ‘anti-caste’ party that has its traditional granary of votes in the southern regions, will depend on whether the conservative bloc led by Giorgia Meloni can achieve an absolute majority. A big favorite in the polls, the candidate of the far-right party Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, Brothers of Italy) has as partners in the right-wing alliance Matteo Salvini’s League and Forza Italia, the electoral brand of Silvio Berlusconi. Their union contrasts with the existing division between progressive forces, which have not been able to forge a coalition, making them less competitive at the polls.
If the Conservatives fail to widely overcome the barrier of 40% of the votes, their landing in the next government could be frustrated by the peculiarities of the Italian electoral system. It foresees that around two thirds of the seats will be assigned according to a proportional formula, according to the percentage of ballots obtained. The remaining third, on the other hand, is distributed in the so-called single-member constituencies, in which the candidate who obtains one more vote than the others wins. Initially approved to promote bipartisanship, this electoral law that should have been reformed favors large coalitions.
It is in the single-member constituencies where the M5E comes into play, which could win a dozen of those seats in the south thanks to its strong defense of the so-called citizenship income (equivalent to the minimum vital income of Spain), the star measure approved thanks to this party to supposedly end poverty. It is received by 1.05 million families, of which two thirds live in the southern regions, and has an average amount of just under 600 euros per month. Meloni has cried out throughout the campaign against citizenship income and promises to end it, because he assures that it discourages entry into the labor market, while the M5E candidate, former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, warns that if they eliminate it “it would mean the civil war” and that he is fighting “a battle for the poorest”.
the wow factor
“The surprise that could turn the forecasts upside down could come here,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, one of the most famous Italian political scientists, in an article published last Wednesday in the newspaper ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’. Even within the ranks of the Democratic Party (PD), the main force of the Italian center-left, weighty voices have emerged in the south of the country calling for the M5E to vote so that it obtains single-member associations and avoids the absolute majority of the right. “Let’s try to get as many votes as possible: it doesn’t matter if the PD or the M5E,” said Michele Emiliano, regional president of Apulia. For Michele Prospero, professor of political science at La Sapienza University in Rome, this is a “very risky” strategy of the left, since it can also limit its chances of obtaining the seats at stake according to the proportional formula. “The PD could thus end up losing a significant share of its parliamentarians,” he predicts.
Away from these political analyses, right-wing voters left the electoral colleges satisfied and hopeful that an absolute majority could be achieved. “I have acquaintances from the left and communists who today vote for Meloni because they believe in the change that she means and that she is a serious person,” said Arturo, a Roman lawyer who is still working at 75 years old. He also took the ballot from FdI Alberto, a middle-aged bricklayer who justified her election because Meloni has promised to end the citizenship income. “It is not fair that I am working to the death every day and that with my taxes they are given money that is a little less than what I earn to those who do not give a stick to the water,” he explained. His is a paradigmatic case of what Professor Prospero calls the “angry workers”, who have abandoned the traditional left-wing vote to support Meloni. “Whoever has a low-skilled job considers that, with such low salaries, it is unfair that those who do not work receive citizenship income.”
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