The Social Democratic Alliance (21.7% of the votes) wins the parliamentary elections in Iceland, in the absence of finishing the count in all the circumcisions in the country on Sunday morning. During election day on Saturday, all eyes were on a snow storm that hit the east of the Nordic country. Even so, the elections could be held normally, although there were delays in the counting of votes.
The parties that were part of the previous government that collapsed in October received a significant electoral setback, losing 18 of the 63 members of parliament compared to the last elections. The formation that was previously in the executive and that has been most punished has been the Green Left Movement, which with 2.4% of the votes would be left out of parliament. The Independence Party of Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson (conservatives) would have been the formation of the previous government that would have withstood the coup the most, coming second in the elections with 19.2% of the votes).
The Social Democratic Alliance, led by Kristrún Frostadóttir, has achieved significant electoral growth, winning 9 deputies, focusing its speech on the need to invest more to improve the public health system. The mayor of Reykjavik, the social democrat Dagur Eggertson was the first to celebrate the results on the public television network RUV: “Social democracy is the clear winner, we need a cohesive and functional government, but it will not be entirely easy to form a government” he warned during the election night. In Iceland, coalition governments between three parties have been the usual norm in recent decades, even forming coalitions between left-wing parties and conservative formations, as in the previous government.
The EU debate is back on the table
With the victory of the Social Democratic Alliance, analysts predict that the party will try to form a government coalition with the Liberal Reformist Party, which has come in third place (15.9% of the votes) although the two formations would need another partner. This possible union of the two pro-European parties has revived the debate on whether Iceland should resume the process to join the European Union.
According to a Reuters pollthe idea that the country should be part of the EU has gained strength in the last year, with 45% of citizens who would be in favor, while 35% would vote against. The economic crisis, and the need for greater cooperation with European countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty that a new mandate from Donald Trump will bring to NATO, have been the arguments in favor of resuming the European project.
Even so, to start the process, the political groups believe that it would be necessary to hold a referendum beforehand: “The social democrats and liberals want to be part of the EU, but they do not want to restart negotiations unless a citizen consultation is first held.” because the issue continues to be very divisive in society today,” says political scientist at the University of Iceland Ólafur Hardarson.
The EU accession project is not a new issue in Iceland, since it was already attempted in 2009 when the government was also led by the Social Democrats. However, negotiations were suspended in 2013 with the arrival of a conservative government. Fishing quotas remain a major point of contention between Iceland and the EU, as the Nordic country fears that membership would require the adoption of common fisheries policies, which would compromise the exclusive control it maintains over its rich fishing grounds.
The economy at the center of the campaign
In the last term, the Icelandic government has had to deal with a series of violent volcanic eruptions in the southwest of the country that caused the displacement and relocation of several thousand people, which has also had an impact on public finances. , since numerous infrastructures had to be rebuilt. A year after the evacuation in the city of Grindavick, many residents still do not have housing secured, which has provoked criticism of the executive for having taken too long to respond. In addition to all this, the volcanic eruptions have also affected tourism, in an economy highly dependent on this sector.
Beyond this problem, The state of the economy has played a central role during the electoral campaignwith annual inflation that reached its highest peak (10.2%) in February 2023, and which stood at 5.2% in the month of October, significantly higher than in the rest of the Nordic countries and than the average of the European Union, (2.4%). This inflation, added to high interest rates, have been the ingredients that in recent years have caused an economic slowdown that has not been seen in the country since the financial crisis of 2008. In this context, the country also suffers a significant shortage of affordable housing aggravated by the rise of short-term tourist rentals, which prevent many young people from having their first home to emancipate themselves.
Another of the disputes that caused the collapse of the government is over the management of asylum seekers, (of which 2 out of 3 are Ukrainians), who have arrived in the island country. In the last year, refugee arrivals have fallen by halfmainly as a result of the tightening of immigration policies carried out by the government. One of the country’s main challenges is finding accommodation for refugees, since in the last four years the number of requests has skyrocketed, from 1,830 arrivals in 2020, to 8,715 refugees in 2023. “From the party of Independence have insisted that the legal framework for refugees had to be toughened, while the Green-Left formation has been very reluctant to do so, even so, “This immigration debate has barely had any importance during the campaign,” explains political scientist Óskarsdóttir.
Collapse of the previous government and electoral advance
The elections were held after the country’s previous prime minister, Bjarni Benediktsson, of the Independence Party, decided to dissolve parliament and call early elections due to the lack of agreement between the parties that formed the executive. Since 2021, the Nordic country was governed by a coalition of very dissimilar political ideology, formed by the Independence Party (conservatives), the Progress Party (rural center-right), and the progressive Left-Green Movement. Benediktsoon came to the helm of the executive last April unexpectedly, after the previous prime minister, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, of the Left-Green, resigned to run in the presidential elections, despite ultimately failing to be elected.
According to the political scientist at the University of Iceland, Stefania Óskarsdóttir, the voices within the government to break the coalition “became stronger and stronger, especially on the part of the conservatives and the left-green”, who maintained deep disagreements on immigration, energy policies and in regulation due to the increase in the costs of living and housing, “until the coalition could no longer be sustained,” says the expert.
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